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Week 5 - Fantasy Forecasts (Matchup Heatmaps) - All Positions
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Hi guys, I'm back! Thanks to everyone who prodded me during the offseason and start of the season to get this going again, the donations didn't hurt either! Had a bit of a dry run last week when /u/Licher posted that I had updated the site (thanks for that), but wanted to come back this week with a full post.

First off, what are these? These are color coded charts that try and predict rest of season fantasy production based on results so far this season. The formula basically comes up with four results that determine the projection: Average For, Average Against, Relative For, and Relative Against. This spits out a projection for each week for each position and then I color code that shit in the Projection Charts.


New this year is the possibility to view the charts just seeing the Relative Against values in the Matchup Charts. This is useful if you don't like using averages to predict future production and just want to see what the defensive matchups are like without that bias. This will differ a bit from other sites normal TEAM vs POS rankings since they don't take the quality of opponents into account, they just compare to the season average.

In both charts a teams results so far this season at that position are located to the left of the blue bar, and either the projections or relative against of their upcoming opponents are to the right. RoS Avg is rest of season average and P/O Avg is playoff average (which by default is the final 3 weeks of the fantasy season). You can also click a projection to see more details about the For and Against so far this season for that game (just realized I forgot to update the DST page for that to include all the default scoring types, will do that soon).

Aside from that, a major complaint was that the navigation bar didn't work on mobile so this year I cheesed together a navigation page when you click the header instead of actually learning how to do responsive page design (some day...).


On to this week's analysis, just fyi usually I focus on a few weeks at a time not just who the best plays are this coming week.

DSTs: Projections / Matchups

Alright so off the bat if we check out the projections chart, unsurprisingly we have the Vikings at the top which a decent matchup against Houston. They're then on bye but obviously as the top D so far this season should be kept. I also really like the Bills for the next few weeks, up against LA, SF, then Miami. The Eagles are a great choice coming off their bye if they got dropped, especially the next two weeks against Detroit and Washington.

If you still need a bye week fill in for Seattle check out the Steelers, Bears or Dolphins.

Kickers: Projections / Matchups

Good old kickers, just want to say, I couldn't believe how many leagues I'm in that had Vinatieri available after 2 or ever 3 weeks into the season, I think I snatched him up in 4 during that time. Anyway, him and Tucker are near the top of the rankings and likely will be most of the season. I also like Gano up til his bye, first at home against Tampa and then at New Orleans.

For someone on the low-owned end of the spectrum, check out Sturgis from Philly, plays Detroit and then Washington, I expect both to be high scoring.

QBs: Projections / Matchups

Top pick for QBs this week is Big Ben(ny) against the Jets. Brady is being held down by the performances of his backups, expect a huge week for him. For possible waiver grabs I'd look to Wentz at Detroit, dude seems legit and the Lions have been haven't inspired a ton of confidence, though some of the skewed ranking here is from Luck going off week 1 and then struggling since.

Matt Ryan is coming off a huge week but has tough matchups against Denver and then Seattle but then the matchups look good for a few weeks. I'd be a little careful with Da(n)k as well, he's a little higher on the charts than I'd expect him to actually perform against the Bengals but I guess Siemian did torch them a few weeks ago so he could be a good bye fill in if you need one. Speaking of which I do like Siemian this week if he's looking healthy closer to game time.

RBs: Projections / Matchups

To be continued...

WRs: Projections / Matchups

To be continued...

TEs: Projections / Matchups

To be continued...


Alright guys, ran out of time before a meeting finishing out these write ups, will fill them in this afternoon and be around to answer questions. Let me know if there's any issues, questions or suggestions about the charts, especially the new matchups one!

Cheers.

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