Well we are now over halfway through the entire Fantasy season. How are you all feeling? I have a few teams where I’m a lock to make the playoffs. Then there’s a few….well that aren’t looking so hot. But that’s Fantasy right? Anyways, hopefully you guys enjoy this breakdown and let’s hope we get an exciting TNF game.

Houston Texans ( 2.5 - Implied Point Total = 20) vs. New York Jets (-2.5 - Implied Point Total = 22.5) - Started at 1.5 for Texans. Money has been placed on the Jets over the past 24 hours.  42.5 total point over/under 

CJ Stroud QB #15 on the year - 15.29 fantasy points per game  223.5 passing yards over/under (-113)/1.5 passing TDs over/under ( 172)/8.5 rushing yards over/under (-128)

CJ Stroud has definitely taken a step back from last year, that much is obvious. Maybe we were too high on him going into this season or maybe the changes in the offense created a learning curve over the first few weeks. Then, Nico Collins got hurt and last week Stefon Diggs tore his ACL. It could be the dreaded 2nd year step back for QBs that often happen as well which isn’t an indictment of his talent. Or is it possible that we are overreacting to a slight decrease in production but for obvious reasons? 

Through 8 weeks, Stroud is averaging 243.5 passing yards (305.25 yards at home vs. 181.75 yards on the road) on 33.25 attempts with 1.38TDs and .5INTs per game while completing 67% of his passes. Let’s compare that to last year, where he was averaging 283.75 passing yards through the first 8 weeks on 34.88 pass attempts with 1.75TDs and .13INTs per game, completing 63% of his passes. Ultimately, CJ has not been as good as he was last year but it hasn’t been as bad as we have made it out to be. The biggest difference is the TD discrepancy, as he had 14 TDs last season at this time but has 11 this season (again not the biggest difference). I think a large majority of his statistical decline has been due to Joe Mixon’s addition. He has been stellar (see below) which has allowed the Texans to easily win games on the ground instead of using a 4 quarter air attack. Now it can be argued that when Joe Mixon was injured CJ’s stats should have improved, which they really didn’t. However, I would say that defenses were not as worried about the run with Cam Akers so instead they dropped back more into coverage to stop the pass. A real chicken or the egg debate. 

Overall, Stroud is the QB #15 on the year averaging 15.29 fantasy points per game. He will be facing the 2nd best defense in passing yards allowed this week in the Jets. With Nico and Diggs out, I would imagine that CJ will have a harder time passing the ball than usual. Vegas agrees, as they have set his passing line at 223.5 yards over/under and 1.5 passing TDs over/under ( 172 odds for over). I do think this game is going to be a slow paced matchup between the two star RBs leaving the QBs to pick up the scraps for fantasy production this week.

CJ Stroud has averaged 91 passing yards on 23 attempts and 10 completions with 0TDs and 0INTs in one career game vs the Jets

Projection: 20/32 200 yards 1TD 1INT/6 attempts 17 yards 

Joe Mixon RB #13 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 20.96 fantasy points per game (5 played) 81.5 rushing yards over/under (-113)/-135 anytime TD Scorer odds (highest in game)

Mixon has been elite this season. His age has not slowed him down yet and the only thing that has is an illegal hip drop tackle which forced him to miss 3 games. When he has been on the field, the production has followed. Last season, by Week 9, Mixon was averaging 61.25 rushing yards on 15.75 attempts with .38TDs per game. He was also averaging 19.75 receiving yards on 3.75 targets and 3 receptions with 0TDs per game as well. 

Compare that to Mixon’s mid-season averages this year, where he is rushing for 100.6 yards (63.5 yards at home vs. 125.33 yards on the road) on 20.4 attempts with 1TD per game (5 games played). He is also seeing more work in the receiving game averaging 23 receiving yards (28.5 yards at home vs. 19.33 yards on the road) on 4 targets and 2.8 receptions with .2TDs per game. Even with 3 missed games this season, Mixon is the RB #13 in Half PPR Scoring, averaging 20.96 fantasy points per game played (compared to last year where he averaged 11.85 fantasy points per game in the first 8 games of the season)! He would be RB #2 on the year in terms of ppg average. 

It definitely helps when you are able to play with as many offensive weapons as Mixon has this season even though his O-Line ranks 22nd in the league according to PFF. Mixon has just been on another level and is not showing any signs of slowing down. However, with the loss of Diggs and Nico still out, he might be facing stacked boxes moving forward which would affect his 2.7 yards after contact per attempt average so far this season (ranks 11th for qualified RBs with over 30 attempts this season). 

Going into this week, Mixon will be facing the 17th ranked defense this season in terms of rushing yards allowed (they give up 125.6 yards per game). Vegas and I disagree on this one as they have set his rushing line at 81.5 yards (19.1 yards below his season average) but have given him -135 odds to score an anytime TD which is the highest in the game. I personally think with the loss of the WR options for the Texans and how well Mixon has been playing, they will feed him the ball and work the clock to keep the game close. 

Mixon has averaged 33.7 rushing yards on 15 attempts with .7TDs and 32.7 receiving yards on 5.3 targets and 3.7 receptions with .3TDs per game in three career games vs. the Jets

Projection: 23 attempts 110 yards 1TD/4 targets 3 receptions 27 yards 

Tank Dell WR #58 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 7.12 fantasy points per game (7 played) 56.5 receiving yards over/under (-113)/4.5 receptions over/under (-114)/ 185 anytime TD scorer odds (4th highest in the game)

Man, this one hurts. I was so high on Tank Dell last season and it paid off big time. Coming into this season I was one of the people in the “Dell will be the WR1 on the Texans” camp. Unfortunately, that has not worked out so far and most likely won’t pan out this season (though he is the pseudo WR1 with the injuries now so…). I do still believe Tank Dell is an above average NFL WR and his connection with CJ Stroud was unmatched last year. Maybe they had a falling out? Maybe Dell’s injury is taking longer for him to get back to his old self? Maybe he was really the 3rd best WR on the team in terms of skill when all three were healthy? Whatever the reason, Tank has been having a rough season so far.

Through 7 games played, Dell is averaging a meager 32.71 receiving yards (23.33 yards at home vs. 39.75 yards on the road) on 5.42 targets and 3.42 receptions with .29TDs per game (compared to last season when he was averaged 63.75 receiving yards on 7.13 targets and 4.25 receptions with .63TDs per game). Some of the regression is due to Diggs taking on the role of the WR2 leaving less opportunities for Dell. I also do believe that the first few weeks of the season Dell was not fully back to himself and we (the fantasy community) saw his one pre-season TD and piled onto the hype train. With the numbers he has put up so far this season, he is the WR #58 on the year in Half PPR Scoring averaging 7.12 fantasy points per game played. Definitely not what we were hoping for where we took him in redrafts this season but there is still hope. 

Moving forward, with Diggs out and Collins coming back in a few weeks, I expect Dell to bounce back in the second half of the season. Vegas thinks this might be the start as they have set his receiving line at 56.5 yards (23.79 yards more than his season average) with a 4.5 reception over/under (-114 over) which is 1.08 receptions more than his season average. They have also given him 185 odds to score an anytime TD which is the 4th highest in the game and 2nd highest for a WR. I think this will be a great game for Dell as there is really no one else to throw to beyond an aging Schultz and a few unproven WRs. 

Tank Dell has never played against the Jets in his career

Projection: 12 targets 6 receptions 89 yards 1TD

Dalton Schultz  TE #25 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 4.23 fantasy points per game  40.5 receiving yards over/under (-113)/4.5 receptions over/under ( 126)/ 360 anytime TD scorer odds (6th highest in the game)

Going into this season I figured Schultz would be a consistent staple in the offense especially after they aired it out so much last year with a rookie QB. Then Joe Mixon was added along with Stefon Diggs. Then CJ Stroud took a step back and his efficiency was not nearly what it was last year. Yes, Schultz got paid but he was ultimately put in a position where he was only there for emergencies. Well, the Texans have an emergency and Schutlz is here to help out. 

Through the first 8 weeks, Schultz is averaging 27.88 receiving yards (35.25 yards at home vs. 20.5 yards on the road) on 4.75 targets and 2.88 receptions with 0TDs. I expect these numbers to change moving forward as Diggs is out of the year and Nico Collins is dealing with a hamstring injury that put him on the IR immediately. This offense could be the Dalton/Dell show for the foreseeable future. Based on his numbers this season, he is the TE #25 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he averages 4.23 fantasy points per game. I would be shocked if this is the finish at the end of the year in both TE rankings and fantasy points per game. We saw a glimpse of it last week where Schutlz received 6 targets (2nd highest of the season) and 4 receptions for 52 yards (most receiving yards in the season). There should be more consistency moving forward.

Vegas agrees as they have set his receiving line at 40.5 yards (12.62 yards more than his season average) with 4.5 total receptions ( 126 over). They have also given him 360 anytime TD scorer odds which is the 6th highest in the game and the best odds for any TE in the game. Although Schultz will see more targets this week, due to the potential run heavy game script, I believe he won’t break out quite yet. 

Projection: 7 targets 4 receptions 50 yards 

Aaron Rodgers  QB #14 on the year - 15.41 fantasy points per game  233.5 passing yards over/under (-113)/1.5 passing TDs over/under ( 112)

I was never an Aaron Rodgers fan. He was a great QB in his prime and had a way of winning games that you didn’t think were possible. The problem is that it was about 10 years ago. Since then, Rodgers has dealt with some injuries and below average seasons by fantasy and NFL standards. Still, the New York Jets thought it was a great idea to give him a ton of money and allow him free reign to call the shots in the front office and out on the field. Well, we have seen how that has worked out of them. They have a worse record than when they had Zach Wilson as their starting QB, they have fired their head coach and they just traded for an aging disgruntled WR who hasn’t played meaningful football in years according to his own words. 

So far, Rodgers is averaging 237 passing yards (261 yards at home w/ 1 London Game vs. 213 yards on the road) on 35.5 attempts (his most since 2019) with 1.5TDs and .88INTs per game while averaging 62% completion percentage (his worst since 2015). He is averaging 6.7 yards per completion this season which is his lowest since 2015 as well. All in all, although he is performing better than the majority of 40 year old NFL QBs, he is still a shadow of his former self in his prime. Again, his age and the fact that he is coming off of an achilles tear last year does make sense. With that said, regardless of the reasoning, the result is the same. 

Rodgers is QB #14 on the year where he is averaging 15.41 fantasy points per game. Hopefully, as the year goes on and Adams gets more integrated into the offense, they will find their stride and Rodgers can be a more consistent streaming option. At this point, I would steer away from him and look for other options (Joe Flacco) to start until Rodgers becomes more of what he was in the past. 

Vegas has set his passing line at 233.5 yards (3.5 yards less than his season average) and 1.5 passing TDs ( 112 odds for over 1.5 TDs). They are not expecting too much from him against the 3rd rated pass defense in the league this season. As I stated below, I do believe this should be a ground and pound game to get Breece Hall back on track and to target the Texan’s perceived weakness, their run defense. 

Aaron Rodgers has averaged 281.3 passing yards on 32.8 attempts and 21.5 completions with 3.5TDs and .3INTs in four career games vs. the Texans*

Projection: 21/30 220 yards 2TD 

Breece Hall RB #8 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 14.11 fantasy points per game  66.5 rushing yards over/under (-113)/30.5 receiving yards over/under (-113)/4.5 receptions over/under ( 114)/-130 anytime TD Scorer odds (2nd highest in the game)

Breece was and still is the best offensive player on the Jets, and personally, I don’t think it is very close. The Jets corrected themselves in Week 6 and 7 when they gave Breece 85% of the snaps where he finished as the RB #8 in both weeks in Half PPR scoring. The Jets seem lost as to what they want their identity to be on offense. Sometimes they will pound the ball with Breece and Allen, other times they will air it out with Wilson and then occasionally they will just take Breece off the field entirely. Last week, he dropped to 74% of the snaps and only received 3 targets in the entire game (he has never had less than 4 in any previous week this season). He was efficient on the ground averaging 5ypc, however, Allen got 12 carries himself and averaged 2.67ypc. It doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense outside of if the Jets are trying to tank this season which would make even less sense. 

Through the first 8 weeks, Breece is averaging 53.5 rushing yards (48.5 yards at home vs. 58.5 yards on the road) on 13.88 attempts with .38TDs per game. He is still being utilized in the passing game, averaging 39.5 receiving yards (28.25 yards at home vs. 50.75 yards on the road) on 5.75 targets and 4.13 receptions with .13TDs per game. Those are basically the same stats he had last year in terms of opportunity in both the rushing and receiving aspect of the offense. Hard to believe the offense was more efficient when Zach Wilson was behind center but it is starting to look like it was. 

Vegas believes that Hall will have a bounce back game, setting his rushing line at 66.5 yards (13 yards more than his season average), his receiving line at 30.5 yards (9 yards less than his season average) on 4.5 total receptions (.37 more than his season average) and have given him -130 odds to score an anytime TD (2nd highest in the game). If the Jets want to salvage the season, they should make Breece the focal point for this game as the Texans are ranked 13th in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per game but 3rd in the league in passing yards allowed per game. 

Breece Hall has averaged 40 rushing yards on 10 attempts with 1TD and 86 receiving yards on 9 targets and 8 receptions with 1TD in one career game vs. the Texans*

Projection: 17 attempts 76 yards 1TD/6 targets 4 receptions 49 yards 

Braelon Allen RB #41 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 6.08 fantasy points per game 20.5 rushing yards over/under (-113)/ 450 anytime TD Scorer odds (9th highest in the game)

So, looking back at my Week 3 write-up I would like to take a small victory lap (you have to take them when you get them since projecting NFL usage or fantasy football production is extremely difficult). I wrote that although Braelon Allen is absolutely skilled and most likely the top-end handcuff at the RB position, he would not and should not be heavily integrated into the offense at the sacrifice of Breece Hall. Well, since that week, Allen has seen only 24.2% of the snaps and only 7.2 opportunities per game. 

Overall, Allen is averaging 23.38 rushing yards (27.5 yards at home vs. 19.25 yards on the road) on 6.13 attempts with .25TDs per game. He is utilized in the passing game as well, albeit inconsistently, as he is averaging 9.25 receiving yards (10 yards at home vs. 8.5 yards on the road) on 1.75 targets with 1.13 receptions and .13TDs per game. Those stats put him at RB #41 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he is averaging 6.08 fantasy points per game. That is very good for a player who has never seen more than 40% of snaps in a week and will only be playing his 9th NFL game this week. 

As I said before, Allen is the premier handcuff and should be rostered in all leagues. However, that does not mean to expect him to make the backfield a committee or take over as the lead back at any point this year outside of an injury to Breece. The week after the coaching change, the Jets only gave Allen 19% of snaps and a meager 5 opportunities. I believe we are going to see more of that same script this week as they need to establish their best player as the focal point of the offense again if they want to salvage their season. Vegas agrees, as they have given Allen a rushing line of only 20.5 yards and 450 odds to score an anytime TD which is the 9th highest in the game. 

Braelon Allen has no career games vs. the Texans*

Projection: 7 attempts 25 yards/2 targets 1 reception 7 yards 

Davante Adams WR #62 on the year in Half PPR scoring - 8.75 fantasy points per game (5.95 per game with the Jets) 57.5 receiving yards over/under (-113)/5.5 receptions over/under ( 136)/ 150 anytime TD Scorer odds (3rd highest in the game)

Adams has not been what we were hoping for when Rodgers and he forced his way onto the Jets with a Week 7 trade. Since he joined the Jets, his numbers have left a lot to be desired as he has averaged only 5.95 fantasy points per game in Half PPR Scoring since the move. 

On the year, Adams is averaging 58.6 receiving yards (40 yards at home vs. 63.25 yards on the road) on 8.4 targets and 5 receptions with .2TDs per game. His season long numbers put him at WR #62 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he is averaging 8.75 fantasy points per game. Is it possible the Raiders have a more efficient and less broken offense than the New York Jets?? It is entirely possible that Adams is still recovering from his “hamstring” injury which made him miss his last few games as a Las Vegas Raider. It is also possible that Adams is having a hard time adapting to the new offense while the Jets as a whole might need some time as well since they only recently transitioned to a new play caller. This week will show a lot in terms of the Jets as a whole and their individual fantasy pieces as well. 

Vegas believes that the distance between Adams and Wilson is closing as they have set his line at 57.5 receiving yards (5.75 less than his season average) on 5.5 receptions (.5 more than his season average) and have given him 150 odds to score an anytime TD (3rd highest in the game). I do believe this is the week where we get to see why Adams was added to this roster even though he was forced to lose to the Steelers twice in a row. 

Davante Adams averages 102.7 receiving yards on 10.7 targets and 7.3 receptions with .7TDs per game in three career games vs. the Texans*

Projection: 9 targets 6 receptions 100 yards 1TD

Garrett Wilson WR #7 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 12.66 fantasy points per game  59.5 receiving yards over/under (-113)/4.5 receptions over/under (-174)/ 185 anytime TD Scorer odds (5th highest in the game)

A few weeks ago I wrote an analysis about Garrett Wilson and what I thought about him as a player. TLDR: he is a WR2 and does not really show the WR1 Alpha traits that most WRs should at this point in time in his career. Especially with how many targets he receives. I am still in the “Garrett Wilson is not that guy” camp but we should know one way or another by the end of this season. 

So far, Wilson is averaging 71.63 receiving yards (70.5 yards at home vs. 72.75 yards on the road) on 10.5! Targets and 6.38 receptions with .38TDs per game. Those numbers put him at the WR #7 on the year in Half PPR scoring where he is averaging 12.66 fantasy points per game (averages 1.98 fantasy points per reception in Half PPR scoring vs. Drake London who is WR #6 on the year in Half PPR Scoring averages 2.22 fantasy points per reception). Wilson has been top 10 in separation score over his first two seasons. He ranks 3rd all time in most targets through his first three seasons and is on pace to break the all time record. So, the opportunity is there and the ability to beat his defenders as well. What is the issue? Wilson does rank 7th in the league this year in dropped passes with 4. The jury is still out on him but there is definitely something that is missing or broken in his game that is holding him back from excelling to the next level. 

Going against the team allowing the 29th most receiving yards per game but giving up the 6th most fantasy points per game to the WR position averaging 19.88 targets and 10.38 receptions with 145.25 yards per game. Those numbers are decent, however; it is hard to split that between Adams and Wilson (along with the ancillary pieces) and still have enough for two productive fantasy weeks. Vegas thinks that Adams will have a better game than Wilson, setting his line at 59.5 receiving yards on 4.5 receptions and 185 odds to score an anytime TD (5th highest in the game). 

Garrett Wilson averages 108 receiving yards on 14 targets and 9 receptions with 0TDs in one career game vs. the Texans

Projection: 9 targets 6 receptions 70 yards 

Tyler Conklin TE #16 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 5.15 fantasy points per game 22.5 receiving yards over/under (-113)/2.5 receptions over/under (-120)/ 480 anytime TD Scorer odds (11th highest in the game) 

Conklin has been somewhat serviceable this year especially when you look at the Jets offense as a whole. He is definitely not a plug and play TE option, however, he is viable for streaming or breaking glass in case of emergencies. 

On the year, Conklin is averaging 30 receiving yards (43.75 yards at home vs. 16.25 yards on the road) on 4.75 targets and 3.25 receptions with .25TDs per game. That puts him solidly at the TE #16 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he is averaging a meager 5.15 fantasy points per game. With that said, over the past two weeks (since Adams has signed) Conklin has only seen 24.5 receiving yards on 4 targets and 3.5 receptions with 0TDs. He has also decreased his snap share from 87% the first 6 weeks of the season to 83% over the past two weeks. This could be a sign of a few different things. One, Rodgers has improved over the season and early on with the rust he could have been searching for his safety blanket. This could also be a change from the offensive scheme point of view when Salah was the head coach. 

This should be a very interesting matchup as the Jets and the Texans rank #2 and #3 respectively in pass yards allowed per game. The Texans also rank top 5 in the NFL in terms of fantasy points given up to the TE only allowing 21 yards per game average and 4 fantasy points per game. Vegas knows this as has set his line at 22.5 receiving yards (7.5 yards less than his season average) and 2.5 total receptions (.75 less than his season average) They have also given him 480 odds to score an anytime TD in this game (11th highest odds). I would expect a quiet night from Conklin due to the defensive matchup and the fact that I think the Jets will once again focus on getting Breece Hall the ball early and often. 

Tyler Conklin averages 28.5 receiving yards on 3 targets and 2 receptions with 0TDs in two career games vs. the Texans

Projection: 4 targets 2 receptions 17 yards 

FINAL SCORE: Houston Texans 20 - New York Jets 24