I re-evaluated my RB rankings, as well as included my write-ups for my top 41 players. I used information from articles, tweets, reddit posts and things I gathered or noticed during the 2023 season.

I also think I forgot how important volume is in predicating RB success, so shoutout to Ryan Heath at Fantasy Points, his articles are amazing and he just posted one about a very useful metric, weighted opportunity.

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/statistically-significant-weighted-opportunity

https://www.dynastynerds.com/putting-the-ff-in-pff-rb-edition/ : This dynasty nerds article from 2022 goes into how we can utilize PFF grades for RB's in fantasy football and what those grades can actually tell us or help to predict

* = Rookie

1. Christian McCaffrey

• Pretty simple, if he stays healthy and plays 16 games he will finish #1 once again
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB1

2. Breece Hall

• Finishing as the RB2 with the Jets horrible OL and inept offense should give owners, and Jets fans, some optimism going into the 2024 season
• The Jets made an effort to bolster their OL in the off season/draft, and with Rodgers expected to be healthy, the entire offense should see a massive boost in fantasy production
• The Jets did draft two competent rookie RB's, but Salah has made it clear he still expects to get Breece 20 touches a game. I personally like Isaiah Davis as the top handcuff.
• Breece had the 6th highest percentage of broken tackles (23.8%), 2nd highest breakaway yard percentage (40.4%), 9th highest average yards after the catch, and the 7th highest route participation amount RB's in the league last season
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB2

3. Bijan Robinson

• With Arthur Smith gone, and the expectation that Raheem Morris/Zac Robinson run this offense more efficiently, and focus on "getting their studs the ball", plus Cousins now at the helm, everyone should see a boost in their fantasy production
• If I've noticed one thing from Falcons fans in their sub reddit last season, it was that Bijan was a competent HC/OC and above average QB away from being unleashed with top 3 RB potential
• Given Bijan's prowess as both a runner and pass catcher, along with the Falcons OL and Strength of Schedule, I truly believe he can finish as a top 3 back
• Bijan had the 7th highest broken tackle percentage by RB's (23.4%), 7th highest yards after catch among RB's (8.9), and 2nd highest route participation among RB's (64.1%) last season
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB3

4. Kyren Williams

• Kyren was fantastic in almost every statistical category last season and saw 25 touches the majority of games he was fully healthy
• He had the 3rd highest broken tackle percentage (25.4%), 4th highest yards after contact (2.9), 4th highest route participation, and 4th most red zone rushing attempts from RB's last season, a sign that the Rams trust him to get the ball into the endzone. These are numbers I don't expect to be reduced too heavily by a rookie eating into his workload
• McVay has consistently shown that he loves to favor his top players and has no problem featuring a workhorse back in his offense
• The only concern is his ability to stay healthy with the massive workload he will likely see. Corum was a workhorse back in college and will get opportunities early on in this offense if Kyren has lingering injuries
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB6

5. Jahymr Gibbs

• It took a few weeks to get Gibbs going and accustomed to the Detroit offense, but we saw what kind of numbers he can put up if Monty misses time or if he sees 15 touches a game
• Gibbs had the 5th highest broken tackle percentage (24.7%), 3rd highest breakaway yard percentage (38.6%), 6th highest yards after contact (2.8), all while facing the 10th highest percentage of stacked boxes (25.8%) for RB's in the league last season
• This backfield will remain split and people continue to sleep on Monty, but Gibbs is the more explosive back in my opinion and sees far more pass catching work which propels him to the top 5 for me in PPR leagues
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB7

6. Derick Henry

• Henry is still King as one of the best rushers in the league, and is now on a markedly higher scoring offense, with a better OL where he will get the majority of touches
• Last year Gus Edwards had 13 rushing TD's with this offense and Henry being a massive upgrade for this team leads me to believe that 13 TD's is the floor for him
• The Ravens on average scored 30 more fantasy PPG offensively each week than the Titans, and Henry was able to finish as the RB8 last year with that low powered offense
• Henry had the 6th highest breakaway yards percentage (33%) for RB's last season as well
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB8

7. Saquon Barkley

• The big thing to look at here is the incredible improvement Barkley will see on the Eagles in terms of OL ranking, scoring, and fire power this team offers vs the Giants
• There are still concerns in terms of Barkley's injury history, learning a new offense, Hurts eating into his red zone carries/TD's, but Barkley will be the clear lead back seeing 15-20 touches a game and I don't think he sees much competition for touches from Gainwell or Shipley
• Barkley in his career his career with the Giants was averaging over 17 PPG
• He clearly can continue to handle a large workload and can see a fair share of receptions at out of the backfield as he had an 80% snap share and 40 receptions last season with the Giants
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB4

8. Jonathan Taylor

• There have been health concerns with JT as of late, but the Colts have shown they want him as the dominant lead back getting 20 touches a game
• The Colts have a fantastic OL and relatively easy Strength of Schedule along with a projected high scoring offense, all things that should allow JT to finish as a top 10 RB
• My only concern is Richardson eating heavily into Taylor's red zone carries and goal line opportunities, but there is no reason that both players can't eat in this offense
• Taylor still ranked 13th in yards after contact per attempt and weeks 7-18 saw 21 touches a game averaging nearly 100 yards rushing per game in that span
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB5

9. Alvin Kamara

• Even though he missed 4 games in 2023, he finished as the RB11, averaging 17.9 PPG
• This offense will remain almost exactly the same in terms of personnel, with Carr at the helm, a lower tier OL, and Kamara as the clear lead back and top receiver out of the backfield
• Kamara should still see a large amount of receiving work in check downs, and what I expect to be an increase from his measly 6 TD's in 2023
• There is some concern that Kamara is aging and it may be showing, along with Kendre expected to see more work in his sophomore season, however I think Kamara is still the better back, and even with only a 63% snap share last season he had the 3rd most PPG in the league
• Kamara was 10th in opportunity share, 8th in weighed opportunities, and 9th in red zone touches
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB12

10. Travis Etienne Jr.

• Etienne was the #1 RB in fantasy through the first 8 weeks of the 2023 season and ended as the RB3 overall
• His YPC were among the 10 worst for RB's with 200 rushes, and we saw a fairly large drop off in touches as well as fantasy production weeks 10-18
• The Jaguars running offense should look almost exactly the same, but they made little to no effort to improve their bottom 10 OL in the off season, one that was also ranked league worst in fantasy points rush grade and adjusted yards before contact per attempt
• It is clear, based on the 2nd half of the 2023 season, as well as comments already made this offseason, that Pederson wants to spread the ball around more amongst his RB's, the reason why is not clear at all
• Etienne is by far the best back out of the 3, easily the most explosive, and has shown he can be a workhorse, yet the Jaguars seem to want to get touches to Tank and D'Ernest, possibly to keep Etienne healthy through the year
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB10

11. Josh Jacobs

• It is easy to be concerned by his numbers last season, but I strongly feel this was due to Jacobs contract issues as well as his purposeful lack of effort to help this team if he expected to be moved in the off season
• He is only 26 years old, and people easily forget his 2022 season in which he finished as the RB1 with nearly 5 YPC and a 92 PFF rating, where he passed the eye test week in and week out as one of the most explosive and hard working RB's in the league
  
• That is closer to the type of player I expect to see with Jacobs in Green Bay, a team with a significantly better offense in every single way compared to the Raiders
• Josh Jacobs also saw the 2nd highest percentage of stacked boxes in the league last season at 35.2%, nearly double than what he saw in 2022 and not a number I expect to be as high with the Packers
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB13

12. De'Von Achane

• Our sample size with Achane is relatively small, as he only played in 11 games with 103 rushes on the year
• He averages 7.77 YPC , has a PFF grade of 92.4, and Miami will continue to run the ball 25 times a game
• The concerns are there; His inability to stay healthy, Mostert still being the lead back and getting the majority of goal line rushes, as well as the Dolphins drafting another explosive back in Wright (although I see Wright as more of the replacement for Mostert after this season)
• I think Achane is worth the risk knowing what he can do with a limited amount of touches, and the expectation he sees more touches a higher snap share than the 43% he saw last season
• Achane had the 4th highest broken tackle percentage, ranked 1st in explosive run rate, and 2nd in yards after contact per attempt as well
• Typically rookie RB's that have this level of efficiency and success see a sizable increase in their touches and one of the best comparable players for Achane is Kamara and the jump he had from his rookie to sophomore season
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB16

13. Isiah Pacheco

• The Chiefs offense last season was historically low scoring in the Mahomes era (nearly a 8 point drop off from the previous 3 seasons at 21.9 PPG in 2023), with Pacheco only seeing 9 TD's on the year
• The Chiefs did not add any competition for Pacheco in the draft or off season and I expect his snap share to increase from 60% in 2023
• His PFF grade, YPC, and receptions were all solid, and I think we have seen him at his fantasy floor with his first 2 seasons in the league
• The Chiefs have a top 5 OL, with the 7th easiest schedule in 2024, so not only do I think Pacheco is a very safe RB to draft, but he is also one with high potential to finish top 10
• The Chiefs not retaining McKinnon is also significant for Pacheco, in the 4 games without McKinnon active, Pacheco was 10th in opportunity share, 8th in weighed opportunities, and 9th in red zone touches, while seeing a 70% snap share in 3/4 of those games
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB9

14. Rachaad White

• Even though I don't believe in White's "talent", volume is king for RB's in fantasy football, and the only way we likely see White finish outside the top 15 is if he gets injured or he loses the starting role
• Considering Bucky Irving is smaller, slower, and would not fit the role of a "bruiser" RB that Buccaneers could utilize to compliment or supplant White as the lead back, I doubt he overtakes White's starting role his rookie season and will likely only be used when White needs a breather
• White ranked 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, 40th in explosive run rate, and 45th in yards after contact per attempt last season
• The main thing in regards to the Bucs OL last year was their interior run blocking was awful, allowing an RB like White to thrive as a pass catcher
• Although he finished as the RB4 last season, his PPG were the 10th highest at 15.8 , only 1.3 higher than the RB ranked 17th in PPG
• His receiving work is his biggest fantasy asset, but that can only carry him so far when coaches in TB have already expressed they plan to spread the ball around more in regards to the running game with Liam Coen as the OC
• One more interesting stat is that in 2023 White had one of the lowest fantasy points per opportunity per RB, and historically when we see that with an RB, there is a drop-off in fantasy production the following season
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB14

15. Joe Mixon

• The move to the Texans is a slight upgrade for Mixon, as they have both a better OL and scoring offense than the Bengals did last year
• With the Bengals and their offensive struggles in 2023, Mixon still finished as RB6 with over 250 rushes and 50 receptions
• If Singletary could perform as well as he did with the Texans as their starter the 2nd half of the season (14.9 PPF the final 9 weeks), I have high expectations for Mixon to outperform those numbers
• Mixon ranked 8th in snap share, 3rd in opportunity share, 7th in weighted opportunities, and was 5th in carries and 13th in targets last season with the Bengals
• This type of usage we saw on the Bengals may not be replicated to this extent, given Mixon was an inefficient runner stat wise, but it is clear he can handle a large work load and I don't think Pierce is much competition for him (the HC Ryans did state he wants to get Pierce more touches recently)
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB11

16. Raheem Mostert

• Mostert finished as the RB5 in 15 games played, with a 85.8 PFF grade, and nearly 5 YPC while leading the league with 18 rushing TD's
• People will likely fade him once again due to his age, injury concern, and two young and talented explosive backs nipping at his heels, but he will likely be just as explosive as the lead back and still dominate the majority of red zone touches, but some TD regression is usually expected after a season like the one he just had
• Mostert had the 8th highest broken tackle percentage (23%), 8th highest breakaway yard percentage (32.5%), 3rd highest yards after contact (2.93), and 6th highest red zone rushing attempts among RB's last season (53)
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB31

17. James Cook

• Cook is a tough RB to gauge because the Bills almost refuse to make him their workhorse back, despite him clearly being the most talented RB on the team, who also seems to pass the "eye test" week in and week out
• Cook had a solid PFF grade, great YPC, and shows prowess as a receiver out of the backfield
• Although the Bills have a lower end OL, and tough schedule, along with Allen taking a huge chunk of rushing opportunities, I feel like Cook is due for better fantasy numbers and consistency than what we've seen in his first few seasons
• He only had a 54% snap share in 2023 and scored a measly 6 times, making him a good candidate to take a fantasy jump and out perform his ADP if he gets more touches
• I don't think the competition for touches will be as close as it was last season, and I do not see Ray Davis as much of a threat (dude will be 25 years old in November as a rookie)
• After Joe Brady took over as the Bills' offensive coordinator weeks 11-18, Cook was the RB11, averaging 19.6 touches and 104.3 total yards per game.
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB15

18. Kenneth Walker

• Walker had the highest broken tackle percentage among RB's in the league at 26.9% last season
• The biggest concerns are his injury history, the OL, the offensive struggles the team had as a whole last season, plus Charbonnet eating into his touches
• I think Walker is a significantly better RB than Charbonnet and not only surpasses in nearly every metric, but also visually looks like an all around better back
• He average 17.3 touches and 82 total yards in the 14 games that he played at least 41% of the snaps
• The Seahawks had a myriad of OL injuries in 2023, and although the unit as a whole is not ranked much better in 2024, I don't think the offense will struggle as much under the new regime
• I like the coaching changes they made in hiring Mike MacDonald as the HC and Ryan Grubb as the OC and expect Geno to look and run the offense more like he did in 2022. I also don't think it hinders any offensive players if Howell takes over
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB17

19. James Connor

• I think Connor tops the list as the most under-rated RB going into 2024
• He ranked 7th in explosive run rate, 8th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 5th in yards after contact per attempt
• Injuries are always a concern, but Connor finished with 15.5 PPG in 13 games played in 2023
• Since he arrived in Arizona, he has finished as the RB7, RB9, and RB13 in fantasy points per game
• He had an incredibly high PFF grade of 89.2 and a top 5 YPC in the league at 5.0, all with a bottom 5 OL and offense last season
• Despite ranking 21st in rushing attempts, he was 6th in rushing yards
• I think some people have concerns that Trey Benson eats into his workload, but Connor was only seeing a 62% snap share, so even if Benson sees a fair share of touches, Connor should still have enough touches to perform just as well as he did in 2023
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB22

20. Aaron Jones

• As a Green Bay fan, it hurts to see him get released and then sign with the enemy, but I think he is still an incredibly talented RB who we saw carry the Packers in the majority of their final 5 games last season (playoffs included)
• In Weeks 15-20, Jones averaged 21.6 touches and 120.3 total yards, while touting the 8th highest explosive run rate and 10th highest yards after contact per attempt in that span
• Injury concerns as of late are the big issue when drafting Jones, but based off where his expected ADP is going to be, I think he is worth the risk because if he plays a full season he can finish top 10
• Although we don't know how McCarthy will look like running this offense, the Vikings have a top 10 OL and a very favorable schedule
• His only real competition for touches is Ty Chandler, who I think is solid, but even with only 15 touches a game, Jones can easily out perform his ADP
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB18

21. Zamir White

• White passed the eye test as the Raiders starting RB the final 4 weeks, seeing 20 touches a game and averaging 15 PPG on 4.5 YPC in that span
• During that span he ranked 13th in explosive run rate, 6th in yards after contact per attempt, and 17th in success rate
• The Raiders did not add nearly any competition, and although I do like Laube as a prospect and expect him to see 3rd down work or be utilized as a pass catching change-of-pace type back, White should still see the lions share of touches in what is expected to be a run first offense
• Although it has been made clear the Raiders want to focus on the run game, their OL is ranked last in the league, and the Raiders have one of the hardest schedules
• The offense as a whole is also projected to be one of the worst once again, and our sample size with White is too small for me to rank him any higher, but the potential is absolutely there
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB26

22. Rhamondre Stevenson

• The Patriots had the 2nd worst offense in fantasy football last season, and going into 2024 they have one of the hardest schedules and a bottom tier OL
• On top of that, they have a rookie QB who may not even better ready to start week 1, along with a new HC and OC trying to implement a new offense with almost a completely new surrounding cast
• All of these factors along with his injury concerns make Stevenson one of the riskier picks in the draft, but I expect his volume to be solid and that along with his talent/pass catching ability entices me to take that risk
• I also think the only direction the Patriots can go is up based on how abysmal they were in 2023, although they still may be at least another year out from a significant improvement
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB19

23. David Montgomery

• Another criminally under-rated RB who averaged 14.8 PPG on a 48% snap share
• The Lions offense should look pretty close to the same as last season, with Monty splitting work with Gibbs, but seeing the majority of the Red Zone touches
• Although everyone believes, and at times it appears to be this way, that Gibbs is the better and more explosive back, we saw Monty break off multiple 20 TD runs last season and is rated higher by PFF
• The reason Gibbs is ranked so much higher in every ranking is due to his ability as a pass catcher, the belief he sees more touches, improves continually in his 2nd season, and we see some TD regression from Montgomery
  
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB21

24. Zack Moss

• He was an RB1 for several weeks early on in the season with the Colts when JT got injured, but when he was called up again towards the end of the season, he did not perform nearly as well and looked less explosive
• He ranked 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt last year
• He moves to the Bengals, who have a solid OL and decently favorable strength of schedule
• I think he has the ability to put up similar numbers as Mixon who finished as the RB6 last season despite the Bengals offense as a whole being neutered with Burrow out the majority of the season
• The main concern is that Chase takes touches away, but I think they use Moss as the early down and red zone back the way they used Mixon
• There are rumblings that Zac Taylor may take a step back in his play calling duties this season, may be too soon to tell if this is factual, but if that is the case, OC Dan Pitcher is said to favor a more balanced offense which could mean more rushing attempts than in previous years for the Bengals
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB33

25. Najee Harris

• The debate will continue up until the first week and throughout the season, on who will be the RB1 on this team, Harris or Warren. My belief is that because they are two completely different backs with different skill sets, and they will both see fantasy relevancy and once again finish close to each other in PPG with the expectation their touches are split evenly once again
• I have Harris ranked higher for the following reasons: with Arthur Smith as the OC, it seems likely he favors an early down bruiser type back like Najee, where we expect him to see the majority of Red Zone touches like he did in 2023. Najee has been reported to be slimming down and working towards a more lean and athletic build for the 2024 season, along with the fact he is on a contract year where we either see RB's work a little bit harder or we see their team run them into the ground before they move on
• Although Warren looks like the better and more explosive back, Najee still has a PFF grade of 78.1, with 100 more carries than Warren did, all while maintaining a solid 4 YPC
• Najee also saw the 7th highest percentage of stacked boxes in the league last season, a number we would hope would go down with Wilson at QB now. however. the lead back of the Broncos last season (Javonte) saw a similar percentage of stacked boxes with Wilson at QB
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB25

26. D'Andre Swift

• I thought Swift was underutilized with the Eagles, seeing only a 58% snap share and losing a lot of goal line work and TD's to Hurts and the "tush-push" (as well as being stopped on the 1 yard line numerous times)
• Although the Eagles have a better OL and a more established powerhouse offense, I feel fairly confident Swift sees the same snap share percentage or even higher with the Bears
• The Bears still have a top 10 OL in the league, with a favorable schedule, abut also with a completely new offense with a rookie QB leading it. So, there is always some risk that there is a learning curve period the first year with a team like this
• Swift looked solid last season with the touches he was given, especially weeks 2-8 when the Eagles were performing like a Super Bowl contender
• There is some concern that this turns into more of a committee with Herbert and Johnson, who are both fairly talented, eating into Swifts workload
  
• Swift ranked 17th in explosive run rate last season, 40th in yards after contact per attempt, and 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB20

27. Brian Robinson Jr.

• I was surprised Robinson was the lead back the majority of last season, but he looked the part on a mess of an offense the majority of the time
• He was solid in every aspect of the game, PFF grade of 75.3, 4.12 YPC, competent as a pass catcher, great at blocking, and had the ability to break off a big play
• He ranked 22nd in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt
• This team is under a new regime with Dan Quinn as HC, and Kliff Kingsbury as OC who in his first 3 season back as a HC had an offense in the top 10 in rushing attempts
• The concern is this offense is being lead by a rookie QB, and one who may take a fair share of rushing attempts, especially in the red zone
• There is also concern that Ekeler fights for control of this backfield, and there is always a chance this is turns into a split backfield (although Robinson ended last season with 13.2 PPG with only a 50% snap share so that wouldn't be a death sentence for him in terms of fantasy)
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB24

28. Jaylen Warren

• Warren was incredibly efficient with his touches, with 5.26 YPC and 61 receptions on the season all while having only a 48% snap share
• he was also 12th in yards per route run and 5th in targets per route run
• He finished 3rd in explosive run rate, 1st in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 2nd in yards after contact per attempt
• Although there is belief Najee will be improved going into the 2024 season, and Smith will run him into the ground given he is in a contract year, Warren should see a similar amount of touches and be just as efficient with those touches as he was in 2023
• The Steelers OL and schedule as a whole is not favorable, but I think that Russell Wilson is a massive upgrade in leading this offense vs the atrocious baby hands fraud that was Kenny Pickett in 2023

29. Tyjae Spears

• There are a lot of question marks with this offense in terms of who will be the lead back and how Levis will look in year 2, but they have made strides to add more weapons as well as improve the OL
• I think Pollard could be the early down back based on his skillset, although these two appear to be pretty similar in their style and may benefit from a split backfield in terms of staying fresh and healthy all season
• I thought Spears looked fantastic in his rookie season as a 3rd down pass catching/change of pace back, with 52 catches on the season, and 4.53 YPC on a 53% snap share
• He ranked 5th in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt
• he proved that he can handle volume and even be a 3 down back, ranking seventh in target share, 10th in TPRR, and 17th in YPRR
• Considering Spears is the "veteran" on this team and has more familiarity with the offense, I have him ranked above Pollard because I think he has a higher ceiling and can be more efficient/explosive with the touches he gets
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB32

30. Javonte Williams

• If you're drafting Williams you likely have belief that he can perform and look as good as he did in his rookie season, and that over a year now removed from his ACL injury, he's recovered enough from that injury to return to that form
• Last season he was statistical awful in almost every category as the starter for this team, and we saw him lose a fair amount of touches and work to both Perine and McLaughlin
• It does not help that the Broncos drafted a bruiser early down type of RB in Estime and will have a rookie QB at the helm running this offense
• There is belief that whoever the Broncos utilize as the pass catching back on this team will be the RB1, considering Bo Nix is known to like to dump the ball off to his RB's
• This makes Jaleel his biggest competition to eat into snap share, and although Jaleel had the most targets per routes run for RB's, he is suspect as a pass blocker which can limit his snap share
• Williams also saw the 5th highest percentage of stacked boxes in the league last season, at 28.1%, a number that may remain high with a rookie QB stepping into this offense
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB34

31. Tony Pollard

• It seem pretty clear that Pollard could not handle the lead back role with 20 touches a game, as he did not look nearly as explosive last season
• Although he moves to a team with a far worse OL and offense as a whole, it could be a good thing for Pollard to be in a split backfield once again
• I think Pollard is the early down back, with Spears getting more of the pass catching work, so there is a real possibility Pollard ends as the RB1 on this team if he can return to his 2022 form
• It does not seem like an exciting or sexy pick by any means, but he still had a PFF rating of 76.6, 4 YPC and is more than competent as a pass catcher, which points in the direction of fantasy relevancy
• His inefficiency with the volume he saw in Dallas however, was a real concern, ranking 7th in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, 2nd in red zone touches, seventh in carries and 11th in targets among backs, but also ranking 44th in yards per touch and 37th in yards created per touch
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB29

32. Jonathan Brooks

• The first rookie off the board and was believed the clear top back in his class
• It seems abundantly apparent that the Panthers, under the new HC Canales, wants to run the ball and utilize Brooks as their feature back
• The concern is not Brooks talent, given he was an explosive workhorse back in college, but that he had an ACL injury in November of 2023 and is still recovering
• Although there seems to be belief he is ready to go for the start of the 2024 season, and the ACL injury was not as brutal as ones we've seen recently with other RB's, we know the drop-off the majority of players see after an ACL injury
• I think Brooks may not be the lead back right away, with Chuba looking as decent as he did at the end of last season, but he is still most likely to end the season as the Panthers RB1
• I think expectations still need to be tempered with Brooks and this backfield, as the Panthers still have one of the worst OL's in the league, tough schedule, and had the worst fantasy offense in the NFL last season
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB23

33. Devin Singletary

• The move to the Giants is a huge downgrade for Singletary as they have a bottom 10 OL, semi-difficult schedule, and were the 4th lowest scoring fantasy offense in 2023
• Singletary from week 10 on with the Texans was seeing 25-30 touches some weeks, averaging 14.3 PPG. with a PFF rating of 70.8 and 4.16 YPC
• He was 19th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt last season as well
• The Giants are awful, Daniel Jones is awful, and their offense is not likely to improve measurably in one season with just the addition of Nabers and Singletary
• However, I think Singletary retains the starting role, despite some people being somewhat excited for rookie Tyrone Tracy. I highly doubt a rookie who just converted to the RB role after being a WR in college for 4 years earns a significant amount of snaps right away
• We saw Barkley average nearly 16 PPG on this abysmal team last season, and although Singletary is nowhere near as good, he can still be a decent flex player for fantasy purposes
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB35

34. Jerome Ford

• I'm not too ashamed to say I spent 90% of my FAAB on this man last season after drafting him, then dropping him week 1
• Ford had the 7th highest breakaway yard percentage at 32.7%,
• I don't expect Chubb to be ready by the start of the season, and there is no way he looks anywhere near the top 3 back he was prior to his brutal injury
• This likely leaves Ford as the lead back with his only competition being Foreman and Hines on a team with a top 3 OL and 3rd easiest schedule
• If Watson starts playing like the QB he was in Houston or at least close to it, it should open up the offense as a whole, especially the run game
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB39

35. Austin Ekeler

• Arguably the biggest bust of 2023 and he moves to a worse situation in almost every way in 2024
• Ekeler was statistically awful in pretty much every category last season, and looked sluggish as if he's lost a significant step
• His only real value is his work as a receiver, which is how I expect the Commanders to utilize him, mostly on 3rd downs and as a change of pace back
• A lot of negatives obviously, but in PPR leagues I think Ekeler could be worth drafting where his expected ADP is, on the hopes get gets 3-5 receptions a game and finds the end zone the way he was able to in 2022
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB30

36. Ezekiel Elliot

• Zeke actually helped some folks win a championship last season, when he assumed the starting role in New England from week 13 on, averaging 15.9 PPG and 5 receptions a game
• His YPC were still abysmal, PFF grade nothing special, and visually he is looking his age
• The shocking thing about all of this is that Dallas did not add any other RB competition in the off season or draft, leaving me to believe Zeke will be the lead back unless Dowdle or Vaughn can prove they are a better option
• Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt, yikes
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB37

37. Chuba Hubbard

• Chuba was another surprise, who helped some teams win their leagues as a very solid flex play from week 12 on (14.4 PPG from that point on)
• His stats were nothing special, but with one of the worst OL in the league he still had a PFF grade of 77.2 and recorded 39 receptions all while seeing the 3rd highest percentage of stacked boxes
• He showed he could be a lead back when called upon, and if Brooks is not ready to start the season or is not 100% early on, Chuba has some real fantasy value
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB48

38. Gus Edwards

• Gus was volatile in terms of fantasy scoring with an even number of boom/bust games (3 & 3), but had a whopping 13 rushing TD's with the Ravens
• I expect him to see a lot of the Red Zone work and begin the season as the lead back for the Chargers
• I don't expect him to necessarily retain both roles all year, although most of his metrics were above average
• He will need to retain that red zone dominance, as he does very little in the pass game and is not a very explosive runner
• His competition is either JK Dobbins, who is coming off of multiple brutal injuries the last few season, or rookie Kimani Vidal, who I like as a late round stash
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB36

39. Zach Charbonnet

• Charb saw a fair share of solid opportunities as a rookie RB last season, and was able to make somewhat of a decent fantasy impact weeks 10-13
• He had a respectable 4.3 YPC, and showed he can be utilized out of the backfield as a receiver
• The games he started he played some incredibly tough defenses (Dallas and the 49ers twice), and although his sample size is small he had some very favorable data points
• 19% of his runs went for 10 yards, 4.6% of his runs went for 20 yards, and even when facing a high percentage of stacked boxes, Charb picked up a first down 30% of the time, and his yards after contact were in the upper tier
• I think if you watched the Seahawks last season, even with his injuries, Walker looked to be the better back in the majority of games he played
• The Seahawks will be running an entirely new offense however, and that could leave room for younger players to have more opportunity to prove themselves
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB40

40. Trey Benson

• I like the Cardinals as a landing spot for Benson, maybe more-so for dynasty, but I expect him to get some opportunity to make an impact in the run game this rookie season
• Per my write-up on James Connor, I expect Connor to remain the lead back and continue to see a 60 % snap share
• Benson player profile outlines how he wins with his leg drive, ability to build up speed, and take the top off defenses with his home run ability
• He had solid vision, follows his blocks well, has a great ability to break tackles, posted a very solid 40 yard dash time, is solid in pass protection, and can be a functional receiver out of the backfield
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB42

41. Blake Corum

• Corum to the Rams is a solid landing spot in terms of having a great OL, competent offense, and fantastic coaching
• Regardless, he will still be behind one of the best backs last season in Kyren, who boasted a league high 82% snap share, something that seems to remain consistent for talented Rams RB's if they stay healthy
• That being said, Kyren has some injury issues, and we are unsure of whether he will be 100% healthy for training camp, so there could be opportunities for Corum to earn touches here and there early on
• Corum was hampered in his 2023 college year due to injuries, and his usual burst was clearly compromised
• However, he was a workhorse back in college, and in 21/22 he was a dominant and explosive runner, with excellent vision, strong leg drive, decisiveness, and creativity
• His speed at the 2nd level is not anything special, but he had solid burst, jump cut ability, can change direction with ease, and shows a he can break tackles often
• Current expected ADP (ESPN) = RB43