Hey FF,

We are back to take a look at another position group - running backs. An injury plague has struck the position and now is a good time to look at a few metrics of interest for returning trade candidates, prioritisation of backups and a look at our existing rosters for potential overvalued guys that would make for a good sell high.

For the purposes of this post I'll be using PPR scoring to define the top RBs - mostly to include Ekeler and Kamara where applicable.

Additionally, as so many of the top 30 RBs have not played a full 6 games due to injury, bye week or suspension, we will almost exclusively be looking at metrics that are per game or per attempt. Because we generally look at the top and bottom performers by category there are a few players who don't get a mention. Apologies if you feel as though your favourite player did not get enough airtime. I'm happy to look up anything about players if you ask.

1) Opportunity Knocks

Only seven running backs currently have an average of 20 touches per game. The lucky few are CMC, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley and your touch leader Alvin Kamara (with 25). After these come another handful of players who are knocking on the door. Austin Ekeler has 19, albeit on a restricted sample size, whilst Kyren Williams, D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Walker III, Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon all come in with an average of 18.

Generally speaking, a reception is more valuable than a carry (unless goal line). In terms of who is getting a high average number of receptions per game, seven RBs exceed or equal four at this point. The lucky few are Bijan Robinson, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Jaylen Warren and, with a mammoth average of 7.8 receptions per game (although only through 3 games with 13, 3 and 7 respectively) – Alvin Kamara.

We aren’t talking about Kamara enough. He’s tied for 5th in points per game, tied for 6th in yards per game, he gets a ton of receiving work and isn’t overly reliant on touchdowns. Crucially, he’s also healthy compared to a number of the other top RBs at this point.

2) Achane believe it!

Scrimmage yards per game, when combined with utilization and opportunity, is a nice indication of floor at this point. Filtering for a minimum of 30 touches, your scrimmage yards per game leader is De’Von Achane with a whopping 131, this beats out his closest competition, CMC, by 10 yards per game. Achane is a hell of a player. Whilst vulturing my next sections somewhat, he not only leads in rushing efficiency but also in big plays, leading the league in terms of rushing attempts going for over 20 yards – with 6 such chunk plays on just 38 rushes on the season. Read another way, 16% of his attempts go for 20 yards or longer.

Other notable yards per game contributors are CMC (121), Zack Moss (115!), Austin Ekeler (113 – though on limited sample size), Travis Etienne (104) and Bijan Robinson (98).

3) Hard Running

Typically Chubb and Javonte are the two RBs who force a lot of broken tackles. Chubb is obviously out and Javonte not firing on all cylinders post injury. Into the breach steps Travis Etienne, who loads the way with 16 broken tackles on the season – or a broken tackle on 14% of his rushing attempts. David Montgomery comes in second here with 12 broken tackles on 13% of his rushing attempts. The big difference between these two is in Yards Before Contact. Etienne is getting hit much earlier than Monty with 2.1 YBC compared to Monty’s 2.6.

After contact, Jaleel McLaughlin leads the way with 3.3 yards per attempt, albeit on a smaller number of attempts. After him Breece Hall rates highest with 2.7, just ahead of CMC with 2.5. In terms of overall volume, only 3 of the top 30 backs have more Yards After Contact than Yards Before Contact – McLaughlin, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgier for whom 63% of his overall rushing yards are coming after the hit.

4) Long Runs

The ability to break off a long run is a vital part of the RB position, otherwise player’s fantasy production will largely be driven by their receiving or touchdown work.

So far Achane has the longest touchdown run, amongst top RBs, on the season with a 76 yard scamper, just ahead of Breece Hall with 72. Only five others have run for more than 40 yard scores so far – CMC, Raheem Mostert, David Montgomery, Zack Moss and Isiah Pacheco.

Turning to efficiency, as a proportion of attempts gone for long (10 yard) rushes, we see Achane leading the pack with a massive 29%, followed by his teammate Mostert and McLaughlin with 17%. Bijan Robinson comes in next with 16% before James Cook and James Conner at 15%. Josh Jacobs and Rhamondre Stevenson are in the slightly worrying bracket on this one with just 3% and 4% of their rushes going for chunk plays respectively.

5) Red Zone and TD Contribution

I’m always a little wary of skill position players who have a particularly high contribution from touchdowns because it tends to indicate them operating close to their ceiling unless they are having a career year like James Conner or Jonathan Taylor in recent years. Right now the highest proportion of fantasy points contributed by touchdowns belong to Raheem Mostert (47%), David Montgomery (42%), Devon Achane (41%), Kenneth Walker III (39%) and Kyren Williams (38%).

By contrast, the lowest significant contributions belong to James Cook and Joe Mixon (9%) followed by Alvin Kamara (10%), Rachaad White (11%), Bijan Robinson and Tony Pollard (13%).

Contextualising these stats is important. A RB who has a lot of goal line work would be expected to convert at a decent rate whilst those without might be getting a pat on the head from the coaching staff or more prone from breaking a bigger, albeit less predictable, longer run. Looking at goal line conversion rate, we generally see low (~40%) rates for your heavily involved backs with two standing out above 70% - Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams. Great O-line or an early season bubble?

I hope this has been interesting. Happy to take any questions.

Cheers!