If you don’t get the title reference then I am so sorry you didn’t get to watch the awful greatness that was VR Troopers or Big Bad Beatleborgs. Google it and enjoy that campy Power Rangers knockoff shit.

Yikes it has been hard to keep one of 2016’s most coveted players on your roster at this point hasn’t it? I kept him in one league, but luckily I traded Kluber at the beginning of the season for the now always injured Jean Segura... not sure if that’s lucky anymore, but I got that goin for me which is nice. So what’s wrong with Jonny Steal Bags? Well, a lot it seems, but you probably figured that out with his dreadful stat-line.

59 games, 225 ABs, .213 BA, 14 SB, 4 CS, 28 runs, 26 RBI, 22 BB, 76 K.

As you can see he is striking out at 33.7% of his at-bats thus far compared to last year where he struck out just under 30% at 29.5%. That uptick is part of his issue for sure, although it is not all of it, yet it needs to be talked about. Why is Villar striking out so much more currently? Well numerous factors. Firstly his soft hitting percentage has soared 6.2% compared to 2016 which in turn means his medium and hard hitting percentages have lowered cumulatively by that same number. What this means is that Villar isn’t hitting nearly as hard as he did last season and is instead hitting a lot of pop-ups, bloopers and, to be frank, shitty grounders. A soft hit grounder is a feast for shortstops and 2nd basemen. He still holds a similar homerun to flyball ratio hovering in that 19.5% area which is good and means that 2016 Villar is still in there somewhere, however he’s flyball percentage on its own is down 2.9% overall.

The good and bad news right now is that Villar is on pace to mimic his 2014 season with the Astros. To be straight forward, Villar was garbage in the first half of 2014. I am utter garbage. Just look at this stat-line.

69 games, 225 ABs, .200 BA, 14 SB, 4 CS, 27 runs, 22 RBI, 15 BB, 68 K.

So look at this god awful stat-line then look just above at the previous stat-line. Damn near verbatim right? So let’s look at the bad to see here first. Villar is lost, striking out like he gets paid to do it, returning to not taking walks like he did in 2016, not able to hit for more than singles and all of this takes away from his base stealing opportunities which is where he brings so much value not just in fantasy, but also for the Brewers as a team. His soft hit rate in 2014 is similar to his soft hit rate in 2017 as well. Something not looked at much is how many pitches are faced by a batter. Villar faced 1,583 pitches in 2016, 976 of them strikes, 607 were balls for example. He faced 918 pitches in 2014, 589 as strikes and 320 balls compared to 2017 where so far he has faced 1,010 pitches, 639 strikes with 371 balls. What’s interesting here is that by facing nearly 100 pitches more it’s a split between strikes and balls almost evenly. What I take away from this is that pitchers are treating Villar similarly to how pitchers treated him in 2014. They are attacking him and trying to get him to chase balls on the outside and high and Villar is responding by doing just a tiny bit better than in 2014. Minuscule to be honest and not better enough for it to even warrant further explanation. The difference between batting .200 and .213 is not much when the difference is in 10 total at-bats.

So before you go trying to sell Villar like a Turboman doll on Christmas Eve, let me give you good news. As I have compared his 2014 season to this season in 2017 I looked overall at Villar’s 2nd half because he only had 38 plate appearances in the 2nd half of 2014. I cannot compare them correctly by that degree, but Villar as a total player trends upward in the 2nd half by all accounts. In 2013 he batted .243 and last season a very nice .270 on top of 31 more stolen bases. Villar is, honestly, still a mystery as he only has 1 real full season. This seems more like a down year for Villar than anything else. Most of his peripherals are the same or off by enough to be corrected. Villar needs to take more pitches, force outside pitches to be balls and start putting some paint on his swings. He batted a bananas .298 in the first half last year and repeating that was going to be hard since he is a steals threat. Pitchers were going to watch plenty of tape on him to try to find his issues and they have found chinks in his armor. He has faced, compared to 2016, an uptick in sliders by 1.3%, cutters by 1.5% and curveballs by 3.5%. That totals to 6.3%. All while he is facing 2.9% fewer fastballs and 3.1% fewer change-ups. A total of 6%. The other .3% came from split-finger fastballs if you were interested. Point being here is that there is a very obvious change in approach by pitchers and instead of going from fastball to change-up to fastball, they are going with an approach that tosses movement at Villar which is directly impacting his swing. His curveball runs above average went from 4.2 in 2016 to -3.9 in 2017. That is a drastic change and has to do with the increase in volume that he is facing. Right now curveball pitchers are having their way with Villar as Villar can handle off-speed, but so far in 2017 cannot handle off-speed with movement or pitches that are almost all movement. Lastly his outside zone and inside zone contact are both down a handful of percentage points while swinging more. First pitch strike is up 5.2% compared to last year and he has a 12.9% swinging strike percentage. Basically, he’s whiffing, swinging more outside the box and taking a first pitch strike more often due in part to this. He starts down 0-1 a lot and is not fighting back effectively.

The Verdict

Villar is still really good and will not see a lack of playing time as the Brew Crew are bad and in sell mode with their young players needing to get reps in. He needs to get back in control and begin dictating the count again. Because he gets stuck in so many 0-1, 1-2 and 0-2 counts it puts him on the defensive when he is an aggressive hitter. Curveballs and sliders have been his kryptonite and kept him off the bases thus hindering his real value between the base paths. Yet I feel he can bounce back because he needs to refocus and take his time at the plate. It’s fine to take an out at the plate if you make the pitcher work for it. He needs to add some more power to his swing and some lift. Bloopers over short or 2nd would drastically help him along with some harder hit grounders into the gaps. He has the tools, but needs to rethink his approach at the plate. Villar is a great buy low candidate. Even if he performs at an average rate you still can get an extra 25 steals in the second half of the season. And for anyone else out there without Billy Hamilton that is a hefty amount even if only in a few weeks. Categories are unforgiving and steals can punish you. I recommend buying low on Villar or if you own Villar get what you can if you have a replacement that is equal or better. Villar is also strong in that he can play 2B, 3B and SS which adds to his value. If you can land him for another player who is playing poorly or even someone playing above themselves then go for it. Villar should get better. Pay attention to how he handles pitches with movement. That is the telling thing to watch.