Hey there fellow Porcello owners. Firstly I traded for him, let me state that. But if you drafted him expecting him to repeat his Cy Young level pitching then my friend, congratulations you played yourself. His 2016 season was an outlier, not the norm. That isn't to say he isn't good, cause he is, but he just happened to go bananas in 2016. Porcello, and you'll see it from this writing, is pitching at a level that you should expect. He is a 4.00 ERA pitcher with around a 1.35 WHIP. That is a regular average for him. Limiting his WHIP is what truly got his ERA that low nailing down nearly a sub 1.00 WHIP in 2016. So, purely because it's easier to discuss, let's look at why he broke out in 2016 and what to expect for the rest of 2017.

2016: The year Rick's became cool

Rick Sanchez and Rick Porcello had pretty good 2016's. In fact, let's let Rick and Morty explain why Rick Porcello had such a great 2016...

Rick: Mort-Mooooorty I need to know whaaaaabuuuuurpwhat pitcher I should take in my fantasy Zerbnock League

Morty: Oh boy Rick... I-I-I-I dunno. Wha-what even is Zerbnock? You draft Earth players in Zerbnock? Seriously Rick what the hell is Zerbnock?

Rick: Well Moooooorttyyyy... (drinks from flask) we draft the best players from our worlds then play each other week by week.

Morty: Well wha-wha-wha-what round are you in Rick?

Rick: buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuurp round two-hundred sixty seven.

Morty: OH BOY... uhhh how many rounds are there Rick?

Rick: one thousssssssssssssssssssssand three hundred and buuuuuuuuuuuuuurp! four.

Morty: Ummmm... well ok... Oh geez Rick... this is a lot of pressure you know?

Rick: No it isn't! Godammit Morty! You-you-you-you-you know its just really easy to do this. Look at this list and tell me who is a good idea. I've drafted basically all the football players that matter and a lot of the baseball players too.

Morty: Well... uhhhh.... what about.... uhhh Son-Sonny Gray?

Rick: Are you stupid? No wait, don't answer that you're Morty so yes, you are stupid as hell. Sonny Gray plays for the A's. You never purposely draft A's pitchers until the bottom of the starter barrel has buuuuuuuuuuuuuurp been drafted.

Morty: Hey, no no no no need to be mean Rick! Ok... well what about Jon Gray?

Rick: No! Can you just go to a different letter?

Morty: Wha-wha-what's wrong with Jon Gray?

Rick: I can't tell if he's a hot woman or not Morty.

Morty: What? His name's Jon, Rick! He-he-he plays professional baseball.

Rick: After a few drinks he looks like if Kathy Griffin didn't have the face of a Yak. buuuuurp So no Morty, pick another one! Go to a different damn letter already! I only have twenty globnoks left to pick.

Morty: How-how much time is that even?

Rick: GODAMMIT MORTY JUST PICK SOMEONE!

Morty: Fine! Rick Porcello!

Rick: Ok, I can accept that. He is a fellow Rick anyhow. He won't piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiitch as well as last buuuuurp year, but he should be good.

Morty: Why-why won't be pitch as good?

Rick: Well MOOOORTY, he was a Cy Young level pitcher in 2016, but he pitched farrrrrr below his averages. It would be like you finally getting to have sex with Jessica without my help.

Morty: Hey!

Rick: Shut up burp anyway, he was able to mix his pitches at an almost perfect rate. He was really good at mixing it up on batters and causing confusion. His 4-seam and 2-seam were on pointtttttttttt buuuuurp and his slider and change-up both kicked ass too. Unlike you MOOOOOOOOORTY!

Morty: Rick you-you-you know that's going to scar me emotionally for the rest-

Rick: Shut up, I'm not done. Anyway, his slider value was a 7.9 in 2016 which is insane since his next best year with his slllllllllllider was 2011 where it was only a 1.0. Similar to your attractiveness rating Morty.

Morty: You-you-you are such a jerk Rick. You know that? A real asshole!

Rick: Ignored. On top of that Porcello's change-up was a 9.1 rating in 2016 too. Nearly doooooooouble buuurp the next highest rating in 2014. He was able to liiiiiiiiiiiiiimit contact and induced a lot of groundballs. He limited home runs and burp stranded almost 75% of batters. Didn't hurt that he stopped walking batters much. Only 1.29 walks per 9 Morty.

Morty: Geez Rick, it sounds like I made a great pick for you!

Rick : Wrong per usual MOOOOOOOORTY.

Morty: Whaa why?

Rick: Because he was playing far above his abilities. His name is Rick, but it isn't A Rick. If he was me then he would have been great since game one. But no, he will revert back to being just a mundane average ass Rick. Sort of like becoming a Morty. What a downgrade.

Morty: Ok that's it, I'm leaving! You-you-you are a real asshole Rick!

Porcello doing Porcello things

So, I did that part because Porcello is just not interesting and there isn't anything really to offer you don't already know. Rick Porcello is an average #3 pitcher with a few flashes of brilliance. At best he's a 3.50 ERA pitcher who limits home runs, at worst he's a 4.50-5.00 ERA pitcher who limits home runs. He's only stranded over 70% of base runners three times in his career (2009, 2014, 2016) which is what leads to his ERA woes. That being said Porcello is a good bottom level #3 or high end #4 starter in your lineup. He maxed out his abilities last season and that most likely will never be replicated. He was over 9000 in 2016 in DBZ terms. He's back to losing control and walking 1.50 batters per nine. His left on base is back below 70%, grounders are down below 40% for the first time in his career and home runs per fly ball are back above 12%. The 4th time he has had that FB/HR ratio in his career. Not all is bad though as Porcello is striking out over a batter per inning, his best ever, and if he can get a pair of good games in then he could be in line to hover just below last year's first half totals across the board excluding batting average.

Conclusion

Rick Porcello is an average level pitcher and, as I stated, one that can have occasional great games. To expect more is a fool's errand. Porcello is a pitcher you want because he gets innings, gives good strikeouts and is on a team that produces enough runs to give him wins. Quality starts will definitely be lower, but Porcello will continue being an average level pitcher who gets things done enough to where he isn't droppable at all, but cannot be relied on as a top line pitcher without favorable match-ups. Porcello will finish with a 4.20-4.50 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, double digit wins and about 17 quality starts. He offers a good buy low candidate for a team that just needs a guy who can be average. He is the John Cusack of starting pitchers.

TL;DR

Porcello is average and will continue to be average. Expecting him to pitch at 2016 levels is unrealistic as he isn't that good, just had a really good year. It was an anomaly. He's a 4.00 ERA guy.