Ever since my Reds traded away Edwin Encarnacion I was pissed. I wouln't be so much if we had beaten the Giants in the playoffs and gone to the World Series like we should have, but that's another thread. EE is good and was a powerhouse pick in fantasy for a long time in a Jays uniform. With the Indians he has had a rough start and is dangerous to dropping below a .200 batting average for the first time in a full first half of a season since 2009. He's had over 20 HRs in the first half of four of the last five seasons, yet only has 6 (almost 1/4 of his total hits btw) in 2017, and owners are scrambling to figure out what exactly is going wrong. Do you buy or sell? Wait and see or cut bait and run? Let's take a look.

Edwin can't hit, but can walk

Edwin has good plate discipline and patience, this is likely widely known. This year is still no different. He is posting 27 walks compared to only 28 hits. Looking back, Edwin has posted 40 walks in the first half of the last 4 seasons and missed five in a row by 3 walks in 2012. The guy can draw walks quite effectively, meaning his issues at the dish can't be vision or really discipline based at their core. It has to be something else right? Not really, funny enough.

Looking at the all-important pitches faced stat there is a noticeable tick up in change-ups that he is facing. 11.6% of the pitches he has faced are change-ups. It's the most he has ever faced thus far, the next closest being in 2008 at 10.6%. In his dominant seasons with the Jays from 2011-2015 over 56% of the pitches he faced were forms of fastballs and he would crush them. He never faced above 10% of change-ups in any of those years. The change-up is really getting to Encarnacion right now.

Encarnacion is a really good hitter. Change-ups are getting him right now, but not utterly destroying him. This isn't a Trevor Story situation. He still walks at an extremely high rate and swings near his average both inside and outside the zone. However, the change-up has had a more dramatic effect than one could have predicted.

His O-Contact (50.0%) and Z-Contact (79.2%) are the lowest of his career thus far and his swinging strike (11.8%) percentage is the highest of his career. The increase in change-ups thrown has definitely caused Encarnacion some issues and made pitches fastballs more effective too. Mix this with he is seein the least about of pitches in the zone (41.8%) he's ever seen and you are seeing why he is having trouble. How do I know this? By looking at pitchers Encarnacion faces.

Let's look at the Twins games between May 12th and May 14th. Encarnacion went 0/11 in that span, stranded 11 runners, had 2 walks and struck out 3 times. Who did he face and what do they throw?

Ervin Santana has been on point so far and Santana is throwing the highest percentage of change-ups in his career right now (13.9%). Jose Berrios is still too raw statline wise to truly point anything out with, but he throws a nice 83.3 mph change-up and has looked stellar in both starts thus far. Hector Santiago is a sinker-change-up pitcher that got shelled by the Indians, but not involving Encarnacion. The relief in the shelling of Santiago, Adam Wilk, throws change-ups, curves and sliders and all are below 85 mph. The point here is these pitchers are throwing to Encarnacion the way they should be. Giving him a mix of slow changeups and high fastballs or low velocity pitches with tons of movement. Encarnacion is just not catching these pitches with his bat right now.

His soft hit percentage is low (17.6%), but not obscenely so while his medium hit percentage is at his second lowest (31.8%), but his hard hit percentage is at a new high (40.7%). When he makes contact, he is getting a lot of power. He's pulling the majority of his hits (49.5%) as well. His flyball to HR ratio is in line with his last 5 seasons, but his percentages of flyballs is below 40% for the first time since 2006. His groundball to flyball rate is above 1.00 for the first time since 2006 as well.

What to make of all this?

I've got good news and bad news.

Bad news is that ball movement is getting Encarnacion at the highest rate of his career. Change-ups are really punching him in the gut and making pitchers fastballs more effective as he is trying to guess when the change-up will come. This issue at the plate is one that he needs to find a semblance of balance in. If he can get that change-up issue taken care of then he should be able to get back on track, but that is easier said than done.

The good news is that he is making strong contact still and still commanding loads of walks. He's on pace for between 47-54 walks which would give him a 5th straight season of 40 walks in the first half of the season. He is still patient and reading fastballs effectively, but change-ups are really causing him trouble in this early season. His hard contact rate though, being as high as it is, should yield more homeruns and get him back in line with his usual pace within the next 2 weeks. The key for Encarnacion is to get the ball in the air and in play. If he gets to 13 homeruns or above by the time he gets to 305 at-bats then he will be on pace to be his usual 100 RBI and 30 HR self.

TL;DR

If he balances out, nails a few bombs and has 2 weeks where he kicks it up a notch he will be on pace for his usual self and could have a strong 2nd half of the season.