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Why aren’t Democrats sounding the alarm that blue states’ lack of new housing will doom the party in the Electoral College of the 2030s?
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Ezra and other left-liberal thinkers have talked a lot about the need for new housing, particularly in blue states and cities where it is much harder to approve and build new housing.

But I don’t hear lots of mainstream thinkers talk about this problem’s effects on the political map for Democrats. The 2030 Census looms on the horizon, and it’s expected that a lot of upper Midwest, New England, and mid-Atlantic states - plus California - will lose electoral votes (and House seats). If you practically game it out, it looks quite scary.

Right now, if Democrats win all the expected blue states, then win PA, MI, WI, and NE-2, that’s 270. But after 2030, it’s likely that this combination will no longer get us to 270.

Of course the hope is that swing-y Sun Belt states like GA, NC, AZ, NV, and maybe even TX or FL will get bluer over time. And I’m sure that the party understands that they’ll have to go all in on these states either way.

But before that shift occurs, what is the party’s plan here? It should obviously spur blue states and cities to build more units, but that can take time, and Democrats still look to be facing an uphill battle in the early 2030s.

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Build a big enough majority and add DC and Puerto Rico as states.

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4 months ago