One of the major approaches of the church is to get married quick and have lots of children. This is not happening.

Since 2000 there has been a claimed growth in membership from 11,068,861 to 17,002,461

That's an increase of 5.93 million members.

Children of Record is a useful statistic the church provides numbers every year. While it's through age 8 one would presume that most families don't wait until the last minute to baptize a child. So I'm limiting kids age 0-7. As well, dropping a year skews the numbers towards the faith.

In much of the world where LDS is growing, such as Latin America or Africa, the birthrate is higher than the US, so using US ratios also is towards the benefit of the church.

In the US the population is generally 22.1% children under 18. That's 18 age blocks. (0-1, 1-2, etc) So our 8 age blocks is 44% of 20%,

9.82% of any group should be children of record. T

This is a number if members of the LDS church do not have more children than normal. If every family was having 4 kids there should be more children than any other age group. So for every 100,000 children you would have 33,333 parents and for this generation would have 11111 parents.

So if we multiple the children of record number by 10.18 we get the total active membership for LDS to be similar to the rest of the US population. This wouldn't be a group having more kids than the national norm.

If members were having more children than normal then it means there's fewer families than I put.

The real number is 3.4 children per from a recent survey.

The entire count of children of record for 22 years is 2.319 million.

To be 22.1% should be 3.757 million. So we can see too few right there just in the raw numbers, where Mormonism is missing a lot of kids. The claim is 13.6%, for only 60% as many kids as there should be.

81,450 is around 10200 new children born per year. That's around 3-4 babies per stake per year. The average stake would have under 20 kids of elementary age. It's not going to be spread evenly so one should expect many to have zero kids.

And that's why Mormonism is dieing. Why it's stopping doing youth activities. Why it disassociated with the Scouts. Because these are programs that show the faith is missing its youth. It's impossible to hide that your dance is so small that 10 girls and 5 boys show up from the entire stake, so just don't hold a dance.

If we think of Scouting as a good lynchpin program from the past, today's 2023 11 year olds were born in 2012. That's 379,000 eligible youth. If we look forward to the Scouts in the next few years, in 2028, there would have been 54,000 fewer Scouts. That's 1075 troops at 50 each. Those numbers are hard to hide.

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