Brexit | Article 50 | Trigger Day | Wednesday, March 29th 2017

Overview:

What is Article 50?

Article 50 is a plan for any country that wishes to exit the EU. It was created as part of the Treaty of Lisbon - an agreement signed up to by all EU states which became law in 2009. Before that treaty, there was no formal mechanism for a country to leave the EU.

Brexit: What are the options?

There is no strict definition of either, but they are used to refer to the closeness of the UK's relationship with the EU, post-Brexit.

So at one extreme, "hard" (or "clean") Brexit could involve the UK refusing to compromise on issues like the free movement of people, leaving the EU single market and trading with the EU as if it were any other country outside Europe, based on World Trade Organization rules.

This would mean - at least in the short term before a trade deal was done - the UK and EU would probably apply tariffs and other trade restrictions on each other.

At the other end of the scale, a "soft" Brexit might involve some form of membership of the European Union single market, in return for a degree of free movement.

Free Trade Area, Customs Union & Single Market:

Free trade area, single market, customs union - what's the difference?

Source: [here]; [shortcut infographic]; [shortcut infographic EU-wide]; [models of relationship to the European Union].

What will negotiations cover?

This is not entirely clear. The UK says a trade deal should be part of negotiations - EU representatives have suggested the withdrawal agreement and a trade deal should be handled separately.

The UK has said it wants an "early agreement" to guarantee the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and those of British nationals living abroad.

Other issues which are likely to be discussed are things like cross-border security arrangements, the European Arrest Warrant, moving EU agencies which have their headquarters in the UK and the UK's contribution to pensions of EU civil servants - part of a wider "divorce bill" which some reports have suggested could run to £50bn.

Before the UK's 2016 referendum, the government published a report on the process for withdrawing from the European Union in which it suggested numerous areas that could be covered in talks. These included:

• Unspent EU funds due to be paid to UK regions and farmers

• Co-operation on foreign policy, including sanctions

• Access to EU agencies which play a role in UK domestic law - like the European Medicines Agency

• Transition arrangements for EU Free Trade Agreements with third countries

• Access for UK citizens to the European Health Insurance Card

• The rights of UK fishermen to fish in traditional non-UK waters, including those in the North Sea

• The UK's environmental commitments made as party to various UN environmental conventions

How long will it last?

The time-frame allowed in Article 50 is two years - and this can only be extended by unanimous agreement from all EU countries.

If no agreement is reached in two years, and no extension is agreed, the UK automatically leaves the EU and all existing agreements - including access to the single market - would cease to apply to the UK.

In this case, it is assumed UK trade relations with the EU would be governed by World Trade Organisation rules.

Former cabinet secretary Sir Gus O'Donnell predicted it would take "at least five years" and Remain-backing former Labour minister and European commissioner Lord Mandelson predicted that "between five and 10 years" was the most likely timescale.

Could the UK change its mind after Article 50 is triggered?

As Article 50 has never been put to the test before, it is difficult to say as it is not explicitly stated in the article itself. But the man who wrote it, Lord Kerr, thinks it could. He told the BBC in November 2016: "It is not irrevocable. You can change your mind while the process is going on. During that period, if a country were to decide actually we don't want to leave after all, everybody would be very cross about it being a waste of time.

"They might try to extract a political price but legally they couldn't insist that you leave."

And the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel, has suggested it could be reversed: "Maybe during the procedure of divorce they will say 'we love you that much that we are not able to conclude that divorce'," he told the Independent.

Source: [here].

Source: [here].

Party Stances on Article 50:

Conservatives – 329 seats

Theresa May drew up her long-awaited Brexit bill to trigger article 50, which was pushed through both houses of Parliament last week. Although the Lords introduced amendments guaranteeing rights for EU citizens, the Commons rejected any changes to the bill. Upon passing the bill, May announced that article 50 would be triggered on the 29th of March.

The vast majority of the Conservative party voted straightforwardly for Brexit at all stages of the passage of the bill. Only Ken Clarke, the former chancellor, voted against the bill, with most MPs happy that May had now conceded on the point of publishing a white paper.

The government will now have to decide what model it will be pursuing during the negotiation process. Having announced a Hard Brexit approach, May made it clear that the UK will not seek to remain a member of the single market (EEA). Contentious issues include degree of access to the single market, EU citizens' rights in the UK, UK citizens' rights in the EU, cooperation in crime & justice, and future relationship with the EU.

Labour – 229 seats

Jeremy Corbyn asked all of his MPs to vote in favour of triggering article 50. However, 47 out of 229 Labour MPs, especially those from remain-supporting constituencies, voted against the bill.

Although the Labour party tried to amend the bill to secure protections for workers and more parliamentary scrutiny, not much was guaranteed. The party's official position is now to keep pressing for those protections, as well as ensuring a relationship with the EU that retains as many rights for EU and UK citizens as possible. It is not clear to what extent the government will be taking Parliament's input during negotiations.

SNP - 54 seats

Nicola Sturgeon's SNP is opposed to Brexit, having voted against the bill with 50 out of 54 of its MPs. The party attempted to introduce over 50 amendments to the bill, including an assurance that May will seek the full agreement of the joint ministerial council of the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

With Scotland having voted to remain in the EU by a majority of 67.2%, the SNP's position is to guarantee as much market access and cooperation with the EU as possible. Yesterday, the Scottish Parliament voted with a majority of 69-59 in favour of demanding a second independence referendum from Westminster.

Liberal Democrats - 9 seats

Tim Farron declared the party's collective position to be against article 50 unless there was a promise of a second referendum on the eventual deal. As that amendment did not go through, 7 out of 9 MPs voted against the bill. The Liberal Democrats remain strongly opposed to Brexit, demanding a close relationship with the EU and guaranteed rights for UK and EU citizens.

UKIP - 1 sea (resigned)

Douglas Carswell, the party’s only MP, unsurprisingly voted for Brexit. In fact, he had suggested the Commons or Lords should be dissolved if either takes the highly unlikely step of blocking article 50. Outside parliament, UKIP’s leader, Paul Nuttall, has tried to present Labour as interfering with the Brexit process as he attempts to unseat the incumbent party in the leave-voting constituency of Stoke-on-Trent Central in an upcoming byelection.

Source: [here] & [here].

Scotland & N. Ireland:

What does this mean for Scotland?

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in the wake of the Leave result that it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland faced being taken out of the EU when it voted to Remain. She said Mrs May's decision to rule out the UK staying in the single market meant Scotland should have a choice between a "hard Brexit" and becoming an independent country, possibly in the EU. Ms Sturgeon has officially asked for permission for a second referendum to be held, saying that she wanted the vote to be held between the autumn of 2018 and spring 2019. Theresa May has said "this is not the time" for a second referendum.

What does it mean for Northern Ireland?

The land border between Northern Ireland and EU member the Republic of Ireland is likely to be a key part of the Brexit talks. Theresa May said a priority for her would be negotiating a deal with the EU which allowed a common travel area between the UK and the Republic.

Like Scotland, Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU in last year's referendum. The result in Northern Ireland was 56% for Remain and 44% for Leave.

Sinn Fein, which was part of the ruling coalition in the Northern Ireland Assembly before it was suspended, has called for a referendum on leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland as soon as possible.

Brexit Secretary David Davis has said that should the people of Northern Ireland vote to leave the UK, they would "be in a position of becoming part of an existing EU member state, rather than seeking to join the EU as a new independent state".

It would then be up to the EU Commission "to respond to any specific questions about the procedural requirements for that to happen," he added.

But Mr Davis said the UK government's "clear position is to support Northern Ireland's current constitutional status: as part of the UK, but with strong links to Ireland".

Source: [here].

Timeline:

22 January 2013 | Conservative Manifesto & UKIP:

In a long awaited speech Prime Minister David Cameron says that if the Conservatives win the next election they would seek to renegotiate the UK's relationship with the EU and then give the British people the "simple choice" in 2017 between staying in the EU under those terms or leaving the EU. His speech comes against a background of polls suggesting UK Independence Party support at 10%.

23 June 2016 | Referendum Result:

UK-Wide

National Results

17 January 2017 | 'Hard Brexit'

Theresa May has said the UK "cannot possibly" remain within the European single market, as staying in it would mean "not leaving the EU at all".

24 January 2017 | Supreme Court & Parliamentary Approval:

Reading out the judgement, Supreme Court President Lord Neuberger said: "By a majority of eight to three, the Supreme Court today rules that the government cannot trigger Article 50 without an act of Parliament authorising it to do so."

He added: "Withdrawal effects a fundamental change by cutting off the source of EU law, as well as changing legal rights.

"The UK's constitutional arrangements require such changes to be clearly authorised by Parliament."

The court also rejected, unanimously, arguments that the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and Northern Ireland Assembly should get to vote on Article 50 before it is triggered.

Lord Neuberger said: "Relations with the EU are a matter for the UK government."

13 March 2017 | Parliamentary Approval of Article 50:

After 70 hours of debate the bill triggering Article 50 has been approved, unamended by both Houses of Parliament.

The final stage is for the bill to receive "Royal Assent" - a legislative formality.

Once that is done the prime minister is free to begin exit negotiations with the EU.

Source: [here].

Source: [here].

Source: [here].

Potential Impact of Brexit:

Peterson Institute for International Economics:

Brexit: The Long-Term Impacts: Immigration

Source: [here].

Europe’s Post-Referendum Dynamics

Source: [here].

UK Trade Policy: Post-Brexit Contingency Planning

Source: [here].

London School of Economics:

The economic impact of Brexit: jobs, growth and the public finances

Source: [here].

Financial Times:

Brexit in seven charts — the economic impact

Source: [here]; [archived].

The Economist:

Straws in the wind | Forget the financial markets. Evidence is mounting that the real economy is suffering from Brexit

Source: [here]; [archived].

The economic consequences | Most estimates of lost income are small, but the risk of bigger losses is large

Source: [here]; [archived].

British & EU Citizens:

What happens to EU citizens living in the UK?

The government has declined to give a firm guarantee about the status of EU nationals currently living in the UK, saying this is not possible without a reciprocal pledge from other EU members about the millions of British nationals living on the continent. EU nationals with a right to permanent residence, which is granted after they have lived in the UK for five years, should not see their rights affected.

What happens to UK citizens working in the EU?

A lot depends on the kind of deal the UK agrees with the EU. If the government opted to impose work permit restrictions on EU nationals, then other countries could reciprocate, meaning Britons would have to apply for visas to work.

Source: [here].