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The death of Stephen the Great in Moldavia had left a mark on his son Bogdan, who had been co-ruling with his father before his death. His father had played a very careful and very risky game balancing Moldavia between all of its neighbors, and while his father had pushed him to submit to the Ottomans Bogdan had other plans. He reached out to Alexander to marry Elizabeth Jagellion, sister of Alexander and Vladislaus Jagellion. However, as he awaited the response of his messenger to Alexander in Vilnius his messenger would find a very different answer than he was expecting.
The report of the treaty between Alexander and Moldavia in the Seimas had caused a general degradation in the internal situation throughout the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. The Catholic and Orthodox camps were yet again inflamed as religious differences were used as excuses to strike against political opposition. Orthodox and Catholic clergymen used the opportunity to strengthen their own positions and attempt to spread their own faiths. Glinsky, seen as a war hero throughout Lithuania, was once again mired in controversy as rumors swirled about to what degree he was involved in the process of the treaty with Moldavia. Shuisky, Voivode of Kiev, used the chaos to strengthen his de facto independent of Lithuania and as an excuse for smaller payments towards the Lithuanian treasury.
Most importantly, however, was the reputation of Grand Duke Alexander. Everyone could point to his actions with Helena and his refusal to cooperate with both magnates and the Seimas as the start of their woes, and this political expediency would bring together many. The most powerful faction in the Lithuanian court were the Catholic hard-liners, and they would find the man they were looking for in Sigismund Jagellion. He had been consistently passed up in thrones amongst his family members, and past attempts by his brothers and mother to provide a throne for him had consistently failed. While Sigismund initially did not want to undermine his brother Alexander, he would eventually be convinced by his allies. Amongst his allies he could count Pope Julius II himself, who after being contacted by some of the more influential Lithuanian and Polish magnates gave Sigismund his blessing. With this in mind and the situation all but decided, it would only be days before the plan was executed.
Bogdan's emissary arrived in the initial aftermath. Alexander had been confronted by a group of Lithuanian magnates and told of the terms before being paraded in front the Seimas only a week later. He would be formally deposed for his actions and inability to protect the integrity of the crown of Lithuania. Simultaneously, as part of the deal created by the Lithuanian nobility Glinsky would be forcefully exiled from the Grand Duchy, where he would flee back to his friend Maximilian's court in Innsbruck. Sigismund would be elected in his place as Grand Duke of Lithuania, and news would be quickly sent back to Poland. There, the Polish Sejm prepared to hold their own meeting to enact their own demands on Vladislaus in the wake of Alexander's deposing. Back in Vilnius, Sigismund would refuse Bogdan's request with the support of the nobility and send him returning home. Sigismund would also begin a search for a wife, hoping to gain either internal stability to a powerful foreign ally.
The emissary would return to alert Bogdan to the situation, who became irate. He would quickly send word to the Sultan in Konstantiniyye that the Jagellion realms once again find themselves in turmoil, and that the Moldavians desire to regain their land in Pocuția. Should Bogdan receive support in a campaign against the Polish, he promises the Sultan that Moldavia will return to providing him with tribute as he should. This also gained the loyalty of many of his own vassals, who supported their newly elevated ruler. Moldavia would march to war with or without the Turks.
In Poland, the Sejm meets and sends a letter to Vladislaus in Buda. Many Polish nobility were active or passive supporters of the deposing in Lithuania, and Sigismund was a popular man in Poland. So, they acted to ensure the mistake made during the earlier Muscovite-Lithuanian War would not occur again. They demanded that Vladislaus meet with his brother Sigismund to sign a formal treaty of alliance and friendship against all enemies foreign and domestic. Should Vladislaus fail to protect the bulwark of Catholicism in the East, the Sejm has threatened to revoke his own crown and look towards Sigismund as their rightful ruler. Notably, this happens as Shuisky in Kiev announces the formal separation of the crown in Kiev and the crown in Vilnius. All payments are to be kept in Kiev, and denouncement of the submission of Lithuania to the Bishop in Rome comes from Kiev. This is seen very positively by the Orthodox in the current and old lands of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, making Shuisky a very popular man.
TL;DR
Alexander has been deposed in favor of Sigismund
Glinsky has been exiled, who has returned to Maximilian's court
Kiev is de-facto and de-jure independent of Lithuania
Sigismund is looking for a wife
The Sejm of Poland has sent a list of demands to Vladislaus, aiming to ensure he will protect Lithuania
Moldavia has raised troops, and has requested the Sultan of the Ottomans assist him in an invasion of Poland in return for tribute
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