Intro

I decided to throw this megathread together which encapsulates as many annual projections released in the last few months as possible. This is obviously not all-inclusive, but should provide plenty of reading material for anyone looking to compare a variety of projection materials.

Forecasts will be grouped by global region, then financial institution, and will include a brief summary per document.

I anticipate this will be the most comprehensive amalgamation of 2021 forecasts anywhere on the internet. Included in this post are hundreds of hours of reading material, statistics, projections, forecasts, insights, and commentary on what to expect from the global economy in 2021. If I missed your institution or a personal favorite, feel free to comment it below so I can add it to this post.

Note: I may update this further later today, or tomorrow, but I've decided to post what I've collected so far.

United States

Wells Fargo

December 10, 2020 - Annual Economic Outlook

We project the recovery, measured by the level of real GDP, will be complete in the third quarter of 2021, but the economy will still be smaller than it would have been in the absence of the pandemic. Furthermore, not all businesses or households will be back to where they were at the end of 2019.

TD Bank

u/blurryk note: quarterly

December 15, 2020 - US Forecast

Accordingly, we have adjusted our baseline forecast to ‘pull forward’ the timing of widespread vaccine distribution to the spring. This is roughly one quarter earlier than our prior assumption and offsets some of the negative near-term economic scarring impact that would occur under the recent surge in cases. The pull-forward of our vaccine assumption into the second quarter is expected to lift the outlook for annual average real GDP growth by around 0.5 percentage points.

Janney

December 14, 2020 - Outlook 2021

Concerns that some of the recovery was artificially induced by the unprecedented level of intervention lead some to remain skeptical the advance can continue. We are not among them. The key is the transition from liquidity to sustainable growth and there are myriad signs of that handoff occurring.

Morgan Stanley

February 1, 2021 - 2021 Outlooks

The global economy saw the worst annual GDP contraction (-4%) in 75 years, and a global pandemic took over 1.5 million lives. We expect an equally dramatic 2021, with immunity to COVID-19 reached in 2Q in the U.S. The combination of reopening, monetary and fiscal stimulus, and pent-up demand will supercharge growth in 2021. But stocks may only make modest returns, tempered by multiple compression, and overall equity returns will hide performance differentials at the region, sector, and style level, similar to 2020. As the world goes back to normal, the premium for highly valued stocks should also return to normal. It is more important to position for this rotation in style performance than to be overweight stocks in our view.

Charles Schwab

November 30, 2020 - 2021 U.S. Market Outlook

In the midst of the economic lockdown phase of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York created a new leading economic index—the Weekly Economic Index—comprised of ten high-frequency indicators of real economic activity, covering consumer behavior, the labor market and production. It is published twice per week, so it gives us an up-to-the day snapshot of economic activity. As you can see below—and as is the case with many individual economic data series—the WEI has had a V-shaped recovery; but has only retraced about two-thirds of the contraction brought on by the pandemic.

PNC

January, 2021 - 2021 National Economic Outlook

PNC’s baseline forecast is for weak growth in early 2021, but then much stronger growth through the rest of the year; real GDP will increase more than 3% from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Real GDP should return to its pre-pandemic peak by the end of this year. The unemployment rate will end 2021 at around 6% and 2022 at around 5%, still well above the 3.5% low in early 2020. Inflation will remain subdued as businesses find it difficult to raise prices given still-soft demand. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep the federal funds rate in its current near-zero range until 2024 to support the recovery.

United States & Canada

Scotiabank

u/blurryk note: Scotiabank switched from a quarterly report to a monthly report in January 2020.

February 4, 2021 - Global Outlook

Late-2020 data suggest strong underlying momentum in Canada and the US despite the surge in the virus. Combined with conservative assumptions on the passage and impact of the American Rescue Plan in the United States, this leads us to raise our forecasts for real GDP growth in 2021 to 5.3% for Canada and to 5.8% in the US.

BMO

December 23, 2020 - 2021 Outlook

The global economy is expected to rebound 5.5% in 2021, and then advance another 4.0% in 2022, after plunging 4.0% this year. To put those figures into some perspective, the prior worst recorded year in the post-war era had been a drop of ‘just’ 0.1% in 2009, while a typical year for the world economy in recent times would see growth something just a bit above 3%. A keen observer would note that even with our call of a strong rebound in the coming two years that the level of activity would still be well below its underlying trend by the end of 2022. Part of that shortfall reflects the simple fact that some of this year’s loss on spending in the service sector—such as on travel, entertainment, restaurants—may never be recouped.

CIBC

January 14, 2021 - Forecasts

The equity market has already built in expectations for an earnings rebound, further growth in the tech giants that led 2020 gains, and for interest rates to remain low enough to make dividends look attractive over bond coupons. So what can drive returns that investors don’t already know?

Canada

TD Bank

u/blurryk note: quarterly

December 15, 2020 - Canadian Forecast

In terms of GDP, the second wave of the virus and related restrictions could shave at least a full percentage point (annualized) from Canadian fourth quarter GDP growth. Still, similar to the U.S. story, a stronger hand-off from September than we had anticipated would still leave Canadian growth running at 2.6% (annualized), above our September forecast.

China

IMF

January 8, 2021 - Article IV Staff Report (download)

The Chinese economy continues its fast recovery from the health and economic crisis as a strong containment effort and macroeconomic and financial policy support have mitigated the crisis impact and helped the economy rebound. However, growth is still unbalanced as the recovery has relied heavily on public support while private consumption is lagging. Rising financial vulnerabilities and the increasingly challenging external environment pose risks to the outlook. Important reforms have progressed despite the crisis, but unevenly across key areas.

ABN AMRO

January 20, 2021 - China Outlook 2021

China’s sharp recovery from the covid-19 collapse in Q1-20 is mainly driven by industry and exports, underpinned by supportive policies. Industrial activity and exports have profited from supply-side oriented policies that have helped firms getting back to business quicker than their foreign competitors, and from pandemic-specific demand for medical supplies and computer products (sectors for which China has a competitive edge). Meanwhile, private consumption is lagging, indicating that China’s aim to raise consumption’s share in GDP – a goal that was reconfirmed last year in the adoption of the dual circulation strategy (see below) – has clearly not taken off in the pandemic year of 2020.

United Kingdom

ABN AMRO

December 15, 2020 - UK Outlook 2021

At the time of publication, the UK and EU remain deadlocked in talks over a post-Brexit free trade agreement to replace the UK’s lapsing single market and customs union membership on 1 January. Our base case continues to be that a deal will be struck. If it is not and the UK exits without a deal, then an agreement is likely in the course of 2021. However, regardless of when or whether a deal is signed, Brexit will cause immense damage to the UK economy, and to a lesser extent to the remaining EU members.

Germany

Deutsche Bank

December 10, 2020 - Outlook 2021

The further we move into the year, the more 'animal spirits' should be lifted by the hope that vaccines will bring about a clear improvement for business and life in general, even though that might only very gradually show up in actual infection rates. Still, with additional support from seasonal factors, the pandemic outlook should brighten from spring onwards and growth should pick up. All in all, a rebound in GDP by about 4 ½% after a drop of 5 ½% seems a realistic scenario in which the pre-COVID output level would be exceeded by Q3. In 2022 growth could expand by another 4%, clearly exceeding potential.

Global (Generalized)

TD Bank

December 15, 2020 - Global Forecast

A strong comeback over the early summer has noticeably downshifted in recent months under a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and subsequent restrictions. Some economies may see their momentum thrown into reverse. But, because we are in the final months of 2020, the downward revision to the annual global economic forecast (-3.8% in September) is modest (0.3 percentage points). We now expect global economic growth to contract by -4.1% in 2020.

December 16, 2020 - Long Term Forecast [Charts] (US & Canada)

BNP Paribas

December 17, 2020 - Eco Perspectives

Until the very end, 2020 has been a difficult year, to say the least. However, there are reasons to be cautiously hopeful about the economy in 2021. Vaccination should reduce the uncertainty about the economic outlook. Ongoing fiscal and monetary support is also important. However, more than ever, caution is necessary in making forecasts. Reaching herd immunity may take longer than expected and some of the economic consequences of the pandemic may only manifest themselves over time.

ABN AMRO

December 18, 2020 - Global Outlook

Just as the arrival of the Covid-19 virus determined the course of the global economy of 2020, so the retreat of the virus will dictate the recovery of 2021. Once vulnerable groups have built up immunity, the restrictions can gradually be lifted. This will boost GDP growth rates around the summer of 2021 and take us to pre-corona levels of prosperity by the end of 2021. Thereafter, a period of above-trend growth will begin in which, thanks to stimulus from governments and loose monetary policy, economies will begin the long climb towards their potential levels.

UBS

November 16, 2020 - Year Ahead 2021

We think the approval and rollout of a coronavirus vaccine by the second quarter, fiscal policymaking, and US voters choosing legislative gridlock will enable corporate earnings in most regions to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. We expect the more economically sensitive markets and sectors, many of which underperformed in 2020, to outperform in 2021. Our preferred areas include small- and mid-caps, select financial and energy names, and the industrial and consumer discretionary sectors.

JP Morgan

January 8, 2021 - Investment Outlook for 2021

International growth will depend on regional pandemic trends early in the year but should broadly accelerate once vaccines are distributed. In addition, a more predictable trade policy from the incoming Biden administration and stronger international economic growth should push the U.S. dollar lower.

DWS

December 10, 2020 - 12 Month Economic and Market Outlook (download)

We expect many of the measures to contain the virus to remain for months, not weeks. That said, we do not expect a broad third or fourth wave of nationwide lockdowns. We believe this strengthens the prospects of a year 2021 with above-potential growth, and even growth in 2022 could be decent. In our view, inflation should not be an issue of 2020 nor 2021.

PIMCO

January 12, 2021 - Cyclical Outlook

Fiscal fatigue in some advanced economies is one such risk. Another is the likely transition in China from credit easing to tightening in the course of this year. Moreover, economic scarring could impede the return to pre-pandemic activity levels and make the recovery bumpy and uneven across countries and sectors.

UBS

November, 2020 - Panorama: Investing in 2021 (download)

Real interest rates are negative across advanced economies, and are likely to stay that way through 2021 and beyond. We believe a less aggressive outlook for US fiscal stimulus limits the prospect of a sudden, significant rise in Treasury yields that would have spillovers across international markets. Investors will have to work harder to generate yield.