So this is my first backstabbr game (England) and early on I made some mistakes in giving mixed signals to France. It took some time to overcome and really this only happened because Italy, Austria, and Germany appeared allied. Turkey (on the ropes), Russia, France, and I decided to work together.

France seems to have quit and opened himself up to Italy and Germany getting all of his SC over the course of two years. Russia and I beat Germany down so that Italy took what he had gained in France. At this point, the board looked like this. Russia offered me a two-way victory in the previous turn. I decided that I was the weak man in the alliance and wouldn't be able to get SC from Italy for a turn at least, likely two. Hence, I backstabbed (as is shown in my moves).

Now it is Spring of '09 and I am trying to figure out when Italy will turn on me. I have a few questions. When do you think they will turn on me? How do I guard myself without showing aggression (a Lvp fleet would be awesome, but would be a major giveaway). Should I turn on Italy/Austria? When? Is taking a three-way victory my best option?