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Need advice on approach
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Problem: Given a dataframe of when you arrive and leave home, return a dataframe that has the probability of when you will arrive and leave home in the future.
Approach so far: I know I want to use a simple exponential smoothing method where I prioritize the most recent time but not sure what else to add.
I also want it to be a bell curve of sorts where if the model predicts that there is a 40% chance you will leave home at 10, then theres like 10% chance you leave home at 10:30, 5 at 11 etc
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