Hear me out:

5 games this weekend will decide AFC playoff seeding:

1. Dolphins @ Bills (-3)
2. Ravens @ Bengals ( 13)
3. Jaguars @ Colts (-14)
4. Titans @ Texans ( 7.5)
5. Steelers @ Browns (-10)

Ravens, Colts, Titans, and Browns all are favored by over a touchdown, all competent teams in must-win games against either 3 of the weakest teams in the league, or the Steelers' backups.

If these games go as expected, which I would give better than a 75% chance, if the Bills win, playoff seeding would be:

1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Steelers
4. Titans
5. Ravens
6. Browns
7. Colts

If Bills lose, seeding would be:

1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Steelers
4. Titans
5. Dolphins
6. Ravens
7. Browns

I think most would agree that Ravens and Titans are the scariest AFC teams other than the Bills or Chiefs. I would also argue that other than the Bills, obviously, the Ravens are the most dangerous team to upset the Chiefs. Chiefs as number 1 seed always play the lowest remaining seed. Ravens at 6 seed rather than 5 seed, means Chiefs are guaranteed to play the Ravens if they win. Ravens at 5 seed means Bills have a much better chance at facing them in the divisional.

Ravens upset Chiefs, and Bills beat Titans/Dolphins in divisional, Bills get Ravens in Buffalo for AFCCG.