Welcome to the second installment of the Box Office Pro vs r/BoxOffice Report Card series, where I answer that burning question: who’s really winning our weekly competitions? For an explanation of how exactly I determined all the numbers you’ll see below, reference the introduction of the first Box Office Pro vs r/BoxOffice Report Card. Note that I did not grade the three weeks we missed, for the sake of fairness. Without further ado, let’s get to the grading, starting with the extra credit!

Extra Credit:

The last third of 2019 was unusually tricky to predict, not just in terms of specific grosses, but also in terms of determining which opener would top each weekend domestically. r/BoxOffice managed to flunk 2 of 4 supposedly semi-competitive weekends, picking “Black and Blue” instead of “Countdown” and “Doctor Sleep” instead of “Midway”. We also missed out on 2 of 3 highly competitive weekends, opting for “Gemini Man” over “The Addams Family” and “Charlie’s Angels” over “Ford v Ferrari”. On the plus side, we correctly picked “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil” and “Knives Out” to win their semi-competitive weekends, along with “Little Women” to win its highly competitive weekend.

Our Grade: F (4/10 points)

Box Office Pro fared a bit better over the last third of 2019, nailing all the same picks we did alongside correctly predicting “Ford v Ferrari” to beat “Charlie’s Angels” over the weekend of November 15.

Their Grade: D- (6/10 points)

Week 1: “It Chapter Two”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $97 million (actual: $91.1 million; difference: -6.1%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $261.7 million (actual: $211.6 million; difference: -19.1%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $605.7 million (actual: $470.3 million; difference: -22.4%)

Our Grades: OW – A, domestic – B-, worldwide – C ; overall excluding worldwide – B

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $136 million (actual: $91.1 million; difference: -33%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $305 million (actual: $211.6 million; difference: -30.6%)

Their Grades: OW – D, domestic – D ; overall – D

I’ve called “It Chapter Two” the very definition of a profitable disappointment before, a description I still stand by, but why did such a seemingly easy sell veer off course in the first place? Most notably, “Chapter Two” didn’t quite build the buzz you’d expect for an “It” sequel and franchise finale, probably because it’s only the first half of the novel that’s indelible, and none of the adult actors hired to give the sequel name value are remotely box office draws. It’s also normal for a horror sequel to decline from its predecessor, no matter how well-received that movie was, which r/BoxOffice recognized; “Chapter Two” exacerbated this with an unexpected degree of frontloadedness thanks to mixed-leaning-negative word of mouth from the many fans of the first movie who showed up over opening weekend.

Week 5: “Joker”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $50.7 million (actual: $96.2 million; difference: 89.7%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $118 million (actual: est. $335.5 million; difference: 184.3%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $282 million (actual: est. $1.073 billion; difference: 280.5%)

Our Grades: OW – F, domestic – F, worldwide – F; overall excluding worldwide – F

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $77 million (actual: $96.2 million; difference: 24.9%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $175 million (actual: est. $335.5 million; difference: 91.7%)

Their Grades: OW – C, domestic – F; overall – F

The by now time-worn canard really does apply here: apparently, we really do live in a society. With that out of the way, I should mention that Box Office Pro’s reasoning wound up pretty much spot-on; however, it was impossible to foresee literally everything going right for “Joker” to give it a position in the cultural discourse practically everywhere it was released, producing a massive (and leggy) breakout. Unfortunately, r/BoxOffice may never come close to predicting a DC movie correctly again, as the DC Cycle has now more or less predominated for the last seven consecutive movies.

Week 6: “Gemini Man”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $24.7 million (actual: $20.6 million; difference: -16.7%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $69 million (actual: $48.5 million; difference: -29.6%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $215 million (actual: $166.6 million; difference: -22.5%)

Our Grades: OW – B, domestic – C-, worldwide – C; overall excluding worldwide – C

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $28 million (actual: $20.6 million; difference: -26.6%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $90 million (actual: $48.5 million; difference: -46.1%)

Their Grades: OW – C, domestic – F; overall – D

Ideally, Ang Lee’s latest would have fused the audiovisual appeal of his biggest success, “Life of Pi”, with a cerebral bent for discerning adult audiences in the vein of “Looper”, and welded those factors to the crowdpleasing action of similar successful movies. In practice, “Gemini Man” wound up pulling off none of those very well, which we expected to an extent, whereas Box Office Pro didn’t seem to expect it at all.

Week 7: “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $62.3 million (actual: $36.9 million; difference: -40.7%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $190 million (actual: $113.9 million; difference: -40%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $620 million (actual: $490.1 million; difference: -20.9%)

Our Grades: OW – F, domestic – F, worldwide – C ; overall excluding worldwide – F

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $37 million (actual: $36.9 million; difference: -0.1%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $110 million (actual: $113.9 million; difference: 3.6%)

Their Grades: OW – A , domestic – A; overall – A

Box Office Pro correctly anticipated that it would be tough for audiences to remain interested in “Maleficent” over five years after an original movie that was well-liked in its time yet hasn’t quite stuck with audiences in the way it needed to since. However, we seemed to overrate the value of Disney’s name brand and classic vault IP to compensate for that gap, even though “Dumbo” should have already taught us a lesson about that. At least a proportionately strong international gross ultimately gave “Mistress of Evil” an acceptable financial prognosis.

Week 8: “Black and Blue”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $13.7 million (actual: $8.4 million; difference: -38.7%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $38 million (actual: $22 million; difference: -42.1%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $44.7 million (actual: $22.7 million; difference: -49.2%)

Our Grades: OW – D-, domestic – F, worldwide – F; overall excluding worldwide – F

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $12 million (actual: $8.4 million; difference: -30.2%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $35 million (actual: $22 million; difference: -37.1%)

Their Grades: OW – D , domestic – D; overall – D

As Box Office Pro feared might happen, the latest African American-oriented Screen Gems release seemed to lack the label’s normal escapist appeal thanks to its cop premise, which also came off as rote and repetitive for prospective audience members. Our worldwide prediction was particularly off, thanks to my mistake in using “Sleepless” as my comp, even though that movie’s sales situation and somewhat notable star in Jamie Foxx allowed it to see theatrical releases in parts of the world a movie of its ilk would normally skip.

Week 9: “Terminator: Dark Fate”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $34 million (actual: $29 million; difference: -14.6%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $85.3 million (actual: $62.3 million; difference: -27%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $423.3 million (actual: $250.9 million; difference: -40.7%)

Our Grades: OW – B, domestic – C, worldwide – F; overall excluding worldwide – C

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $38 million (actual: $29 million; difference: -23.6%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $85 million (actual: $62.3 million; difference: -26.8%)

Their Grades: OW – C, domestic – C; overall – C

Fans never embraced the newest “Terminator”, nor did anyone else really, since there simply wasn’t any demand for another quasi-reboot after “Genisys” failed in its attempt to do the same thing relatively recently. Of course, we all should know that by now; signs were mixed even two months before the release of “Dark Fate”, and it never wound up building interest the way it should have in the subsequent span. With that in mind, the biggest surprise “Dark Fate” sprung was a flop in China, the one territory expected to reliably turn out for a “Terminator” movie, leading to a drastic worldwide shortfall compared to our prediction.

Week 10: “Doctor Sleep”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $40.7 million (actual: $14.1 million; difference: -65.3%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $114 million (actual: $31.6 million; difference: -72.3%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $250 million (actual: $71.9 million; difference: -71.3%)

Our Grades: OW – F, domestic – F, worldwide – F; overall excluding worldwide – F

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $25 million (actual: $14.1 million; difference: -43.5%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $92 million (actual: $31.6 million; difference: -65.7%)

Their Grades: OW – F, domestic – F; overall – F

Again, Box Office Pro was correct to point out that the young female-leaning horror staple audience’s lack of familiarity with “The Shining” or Stephen King’s source material would be a major obstacle to “Doctor Sleep” breaking out as many expected. However, that doesn’t fully explain the sheer depth of audiences’ rejection here, even though “Sleep” wound up receiving positive reviews and word of mouth. For one thing, the trailers saw strongly positive online reception, also evident from our predictions, which in retrospect attests to the gap between those who are active online and the moviegoing public at large. While “The Shining” is supposedly hailed as a classic, in truth, the vast majority of the general audience doesn’t remember it, or even hasn’t seen it at all. With WB’s marketing seeming to lean heavily on that movie’s brand name, alongside King’s, in lieu of showing an appealing plot or worthwhile scares, it starts to look less surprising that everyone stayed away from “Doctor Sleep”.

Week 11: “Charlie’s Angels”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $24.2 million (actual: $8.4 million; difference: -65.5%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $72.7 million (actual: $17.8 million; difference: -75.5%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $188.7 million (actual: $70.5 million; difference: -62.6%)

Our Grades: OW – F, domestic – F, worldwide – F; overall excluding worldwide – F

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $29 million (actual: $8.4 million; difference: -71.2%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $78 million (actual: $17.8 million; difference: -77.2%)

Their Grades: OW – F, domestic – F; overall – F

Truthfully, I always thought most of the predictions I was seeing for “Charlie’s Angels” two months out were awfully high. It didn’t look to be capitalizing on its predecessors’ premise with pieces or in a way that would interest audiences, much like previous Sony reboot “Men in Black: International”, only “Charlie’s Angels” is a far less notable brand. That being said, even I didn’t nearly call “Angels” making less in total domestically than “International” opened to, and less worldwide than “International” grossed domestically alone. Domestically, it barely outperformed “The Girl in the Spider’s Web”, another failed female-centric Sony reboot released at about the same time in 2018. I’m at a loss to fully explain how the movie bombed to this extent, to be frank.

Week 12: “Frozen II”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $151.7 million (actual: $130.3 million; difference: -14.1%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $501 million (actual: est. $480 million; difference: -4.2%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $1.444 billion (actual: est. $1.45 billion; difference: 0.4%)

Our Grades: OW – B, domestic – A, worldwide – A ; overall excluding worldwide – A-

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $125 million (actual: $130.3 million; difference: 4.2%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $450 million (actual: est. $480 million; difference: 6.7%)

Their Grades: OW – A, domestic – A; overall – A

In aggregate, “Frozen II” was the most accurately predicted movie of the last third of 2019, though there were still two minor misses in the process. Despite unspectacular audience reception, the long-awaited (enough to defy the lengthy wait) “Frozen” sequel wound up taking advantage of its incredibly favorable calendar position to leg out beyond expectations that were arguably already optimistic. However, that factor also worked the other way, as many families opted to wait until the Thanksgiving break, or perhaps even the Christmas period, deflating its domestic opening compared to our forecast.

Week 13: “Knives Out”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $23.7 million (actual: $26.8 million; difference: 13.1%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $100 million (actual: est. $165 million; difference: 65%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $235 million (actual: est. $310 million; difference: 31.9%)

Our Grades: OW – B, domestic – F, worldwide – D ; overall excluding worldwide – D-

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $17.5 million (actual: $26.8 million; difference: 53%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $70 million (actual: est. $165 million; difference: 135.7%)

Their Grades: OW – F, domestic – F; overall – F

Apparently. our prediction wasn’t so optimistic after all, even though “Knives Out” certainly fell into that space of a movie Reddit was anticipating, and so opted to predict highly. Arguably, neither of the downsides Box Office Pro cited at the time were relevant, and it could perhaps be said that “Murder on the Orient Express” was held back more than helped domestically by its time-worn brand (not to mention indifferent word of mouth). “Knives Out” thrived as an original option for adult audiences of all ages and persuasions over, and even beyond, a holiday season typically filled with branded IP, picking up the slack from underperformers like “Richard Jewell” and “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” in no small part thanks to a crowd-pleasing, buzz-worthy final product. Internationally, “Knives Out” also fared well, but nowhere did its shockingly incandescent North American holds repeat, resulting in an unexpectedly low share of its worldwide gross.

Week 14: “Brahms: The Boy II”

Our Grade: W

Vs.

Their Grade: W

It always seemed improbable that STX would keep two of their movies scheduled to release widely on the same day. The distributor wound up delaying its stronger prospect (not that that’s saying much) to February 21, 2020 barely a week after our prediction round.

Week 15: “Jumanji: The Next Level”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $65.3 million (actual: $59.3 million; difference: -9.3%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $308.7 million (actual: est. $315 million; difference: 2.1%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $834.7 million (actual: est. $795 million; difference: -4.8%)

Our Grades: OW – A-, domestic – A , worldwide – A; overall excluding worldwide – A

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $70 million (actual: $59.3 million; difference: -15.4%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $265 million (actual: est. $315 million; difference: 18.9%)

Their Grades: OW – B, domestic – B-; overall – B

Remarkably, “The Next Level” has largely managed to replicate its predecessor’s legs and general walk-up heavy pattern, particularly holding about as well (albeit at a lower level and against lighter competition) over the past month or so. For another perspective, its domestic multiple could wind up matching “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”, Sony’s famously leggy release over the same frame in 2018, which faced a roughly comparable competitive situation. Otherwise, there’s not too much to say here: as a sequel to a breakout comedy, matching or improving on “Welcome to the Jungle” would have been shocking, which both us and Box Office Pro realized. At the same time, “Welcome to the Jungle” was and still is a beloved movie, and “The Next Level” took its premise in the right direction to stanch the bleeding, again a correct call by both parties.

Week 16: “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $217.7 million (actual: $177.4 million; difference: -18.5%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $733.3 million (actual: est. $516 million; difference: -29.6%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $1.5 billion (actual: est. $1.07 billion; difference: -28.7%)

Our Grades: OW – B-, domestic – C-, worldwide – C-; overall excluding worldwide – C

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $200 million (actual: $177.4 million; difference: -11.3%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $650 million (actual: est. $516 million; difference: -20.6%)

Their Grades: OW – B , domestic – C ; overall – B

Box Office Pro was generally optimistic, and our consensus was highly optimistic, that J. J. Abrams could steer the “Star Wars” ship back on course by appeasing both longtime fans turned off by “The Last Jedi” and “Solo” and the franchise’s casual constituency for which “Star Wars” risked losing the status of event cinema. Unfortunately, the final product wound up neither satisfying the notoriously hard to please “Star Wars” fanbase, nor producing much buzz with or appealing much to the audiences who flocked to and loved “The Force Awakens” in 2015-16. That resulted in “The Rise of Skywalker” spurning the previous “Star Wars” trilogy trends to finish as perhaps the highest-grossing worldwide disappointment on record.

Week 17: “Little Women”

Our Domestic OW Prediction: $27.5 million (actual: $16.8 million; difference: -39.1%)

Our Domestic Total Prediction: $133.3 million (actual: est. $110 million; difference: -17.5%)

Our Worldwide Total Prediction: $278.3 million (actual: est. $210 million; difference: -24.6%)

Our Grades: OW – D-, domestic – B, worldwide – C; overall excluding worldwide – C-

Vs.

Their Domestic OW Prediction: $20 million (actual: $16.8 million; difference: -16.2%)

Their Domestic Total Prediction: $100 million (actual: est. $110 million; difference: 10%)

Their Grades: OW – B, domestic – B ; overall – B

Box Office Pro’s “Little Women” prediction wound up correctly being optimistic, but stopping short of a true breakout; however, rounding and a minor calendar misgauging left it with poorer grades than it perhaps deserves. On the other hand, hype ruled the day for r/BoxOffice, which overshot “Little Women” by a fair bit, especially internationally where the source material doesn’t have the same awareness and following as in the United States. Still, “Little Women” has been a clear hit for what it is all over the world (even without much awards season attention), and our highball is nary a patch on that fact.

Final Evaluation:

r/BoxOffice’s Domestic Opening Predictions: 33.49% average difference; 1.82 total assignment GPA

Box Office Pro’s Domestic Opening Predictions: 27.17% average difference; 1.97 total assignment GPA

r/BoxOffice’s Domestic Total Predictions: 46.95% average difference; 1.46 total assignment GPA

Box Office Pro’s Domestic Total Predictions: 43.90% average difference; 1.59 total assignment GPA

r/BoxOffice’s Worldwide Total Predictions: 50.81% average difference; 1.51 total assignment GPA

r/BoxOffice’s Overall (Domestic) Predictions: 40.22% average difference; 1.49 total assignment GPA; 85.72/130 points with extra credit (D course grade)

Box Office Pro’s Overall Predictions: 35.53% average difference; 1.49 total assignment GPA; 89.76/130 points with extra credit (D course grade)

So there you have it, Box Office Pro “won” this time, but not with great marks or by an impressive margin over a very unpredictable period. If you have anything to say, I encourage you to comment below. Otherwise, look for the next report card sometime in May!