Welcome one and all to the latest Box Office Pro vs r/BoxOffice competition! This week, we will look at the upcoming film "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker".
- What will its 3-day opening weekend be?
- How about its domestic total?
- And its worldwide total?
It's appreciated that you do all three, but it's not required.
As always, I'm going to be averaging out the top 3 voted answers and treating that as our official Reddit estimate. So I encourage you to upvote and downvote answers based on which ones you agree with. Additionally, if you have any ideas for tweaks to the format, you are welcome to suggest them, and I will take them into consideration.
Last week, we predicted "Jumanji: The Next Level", arriving at the following consensus figures based on the 3 predictions with the most total points:
- $65.3 million domestic OW
- $308.7 million domestic total
- $834.7 million worldwide total
For comparison, Box Office Pro is calling for a $70 million domestic OW and a $265 million domestic total. That would add up to approximately $716.6 million worldwide, using our consensus 37/63 domestic/international split.
Some miscellaneous trivia about last week's results:
- In general, we have little confidence that "The Next Level" can replicate its predecessor's success, with only one of eight predictions over $900 million finishing karma-positive.
- Our consensus is currently calling for "Jumanji" to pull a 4.72x multiple from its opening, and only one individual prediction out of the entire set is expecting a multiple under 4x, whereas 3 predictors think it will hold better than "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse", which opened at the same time last year. That's a big contrast from BOP's sub-4x prediction.
- However, the history of $50 million domestic openers two weekends before Christmas suggests our level of confidence in its staying power is rather unwarranted. Based on Box Office Mojo data, "The Chronicles of Narnia" is the only one to have exceeded a 4x multiple, while the first two "Hobbit" movies settled right around 3.5x, without having to face tough second-weekend competition, unlike "Jumanji".
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