Welcome one and all to the latest Box Office Pro vs r/BoxOffice competition! This week, we've decided to look at the upcoming film "Knives Out".
- What will its 3-day opening weekend be? Keep in mind that this movie will be opening on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, deflating its opening weekend.
- How about its domestic total?
- And its worldwide total?
It's appreciated that you do all three, but it's not required.
As always, I'm going to be averaging out the top 3 voted answers and treating that as our official Reddit estimate. So I encourage you to upvote and downvote answers based on which ones you agree with. Additionally, if you have any ideas for tweaks to the format, you are welcome to suggest them, and I will take them into consideration.
Last week, we predicted "Frozen II", arriving at the following consensus figures based on the 3 predictions with the most total points (adjusting for a typo):
- $151.7 million domestic OW
- $501 million domestic total
- $1.444 billion worldwide total
For comparison, Box Office Pro is calling for a $125 million domestic OW and a $450 million domestic total. That would add up to approximately $1.297 billion worldwide, using our consensus 35/65 domestic/international split.
Some miscellaneous trivia about last week's results:
- "Hopefully I'll have much more to say this time next week." Alas, participation was pretty underwhelming last week, and I suspect the fact that I'm submitting predictions has something to do with it. There were only 33 comments, exactly as many as for "Terminator: Dark Fate" a few weeks back, though there were 24 full "Frozen II" predictions versus 19 "Dark Fate" predictions.
- The spread of predictions also seemed to suggest a clear consensus; my comment was the only full prediction to call for a sub-3x domestic multiple, while there were no full predictions under $1.1 billion or over $1.8 billion worldwide. Finally, the vast majority of predictions called for an international share in between 60 and 70%, inclusive.
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