I, as many of you did, bore witness to the team I love falling flat on its face against the Toronto Raptors last night. But more than just a single loss, the ups and downs (mostly the latter) that this team went through last night seemed almost prototypical of their season so far, if exaggerated. Specifically, their struggles in the mid-game, and especially the second quarter, despite playing relatively well in the first and fourth quarters. While this idea is anything but novel, I decided to spend way too much time going through BasketballReference and analyzing how we have ACTUALLY played this season, quarter to quarter.

To do this, I went through the box score of every Celtics game so far and calculated the point differential for each quarter. I threw that into an excel spreadsheet, then used other data from BasketballReference to gauge those numbers in comparison to the situation of that game.

Overall, these are the average point differentials per quarter for all 61 Celtics games this year:

Right off the bat, it looks just as bad as we might have expected. There is an absolutely massive drop in point differential from the first to the second quarter, to a degree of over three and a half points. We regain a positive point differential in the second quarter, but not by much, and only come close to returning to Q1 form in the fourth. Even at this most superficial level, it is clear that we dig ourselves into a massive hole once our bench is asked to take over, and we spend the rest of the game trying to climb our way back out of that hole.

"But Gamma," you're probably thinking, "what if that is just because of our losses. Surely we must do better in games that we end up winning than games where we end up losing!" And you would be right... in absolute terms. But in relative terms, that answer is not so straightforward...

In games that are losses, we have a point differential of over three points lower in the second quarter than the first quarter, with that becoming 4 points lower in the third quarter. Shockingly however, that difference is larger in games we've won, with the point differential dropping by four between the first and second quarters of winning games, before jumping back up to a differential of 4 in the third quarter. In losses, we also on average outscore our opponents in the fourth quarter, despite coming up short.

Interestingly, the biggest difference between wins and losses comes not in the second quarter, but in the third. On average, we have a point differential of over 8 points lower in the third quarter in losing games compared to winning games, the largest difference for any quarter between winning and losing games. This makes sense - for a team plagued by morale issues, having a slow start out of the gate in the second half definitely puts a damper on any enthusiasm for mounting a comeback, especially after having dug themselves into a hole in the second quarter. Conversely, if we have a strong third quarter, it keeps up the pressure and helps lead us to more wins.

These trends also become more exaggerated as we put ourselves in more difficult situations, especially playing away games:

At home, we play very consistently - we put up big numbers the first quarter (as usual), have the normal drop in the second quarter, but far less pronounced, and then keep the engine running around the same pace for the second half. It leads to a home record of 23-8. But in away games, we take a significant dip in the midgame, with our average point differential dropping nearly six points between the first and second quarter, and not regaining a positive point differential until the fourth quarter. This is a massive hole to have to overcome, and when you are forcing yourself into comeback games night after night, away from the energy of the Garden, there is no wonder where a lot of morale issues are coming from. That is where our 14-16 road record comes from.

And speaking of morale issues...

Now, before people start yelling yes, I am aware that it is a small sample size for games without Kyrie. And I am aware that using such a small sample size for stats that will appear to validate the "fuck Kyrie" contingent will be seen as inciting argument. But it is something worth looking at, because in the games where we haven't had Kyrie, the second quarter slump disappears. Of these 11 games, we have won 9, accounting for almost a quarter of our wins (thats a 28-22 record when Kyrie starts, for those too lazy to do that math). And with the team struggling as much as it is, so late into the season, we have to start figuring out where our problems lie, so that we can address them before its too late, whether that be with the bench, road difficulties, or more persistent internal issues.

I have to believe that these are just regular-season blues. That when we hit the playoffs we will find our stride like we did last season. That our bench will be able to play half as well as our starters do, and not dig us into a hole every second quarter. That Kyrie will unlock some Lebron-like intensity that showcases skills we never knew he had before.

But until then, all I have are the numbers. And they do not look good.