Coming soon - Get a detailed view of why an account is flagged as spam!
view details

This post has been de-listed

It is no longer included in search results and normal feeds (front page, hot posts, subreddit posts, etc). It remains visible only via the author's post history.

27
Marshall thou should be living in this hour! Bad interpretation of BOP/IIP statistics by Michael Pettis
Post Body

Answering a question on r/askeconomics got me pointed in the direction of Michael Pettis's writings on the reserve currency and the US trade deficits, and thus some bad economics. E.g.he quotes, approvingly, Jared Bernstein saying that:

If trade-surplus countries suppress their own consumption and use their excess savings to accumulate dollars, trade-deficit countries must absorb those excess savings to finance their excess consumption or investment.

But that's assigning an inappropriate causality to a transaction. Let's say today I bought a loaf of bread. Now that was conditional on there being a baker willing to sell me a loaf of bread. But it also was conditional on me wanting to buy a loaf of bread. No one is forced to bake bread. Both of us had to be willing to trade for the bread sale to happen.

Similarly, if some countries choose to suppress their own consumption, they can only accumulate US dollars if the US chooses to absorb those excess savings as consumption or investment.

And again:

The fact is that if foreign central banks buy trillions of dollars of US government bonds except in the very unlikely case that there just happen to be trillions of dollars of productive American investments whose backers were unable to proceed only because American financial markets were unable to provide capital at reasonable prices, then either the US savings rates had to drop because a speculative investment boom unleashed a debt-funded consumption boom (i.e. household consumption rose faster than household income) or the US savings rate had to drop because of a rise in American unemployment.

But of course, there's no reason that the US had to create trillions of dollars of US government bonds for foreigners to buy. If the US government only created billions of US dollar bonds, those foreign central banks would all be competing against each other to buy them, driving up US bond prices and thus down yields until enough central banks decided it wasn't worth it and dropped out.

This is just a variant of Alfred Marshall's famous line:

We might as reasonably dispute, whether it is the upper or under blade of a pair of scissors that cuts a piece of paper, as whether value is governed by utility or cost of production.

It hardly seems worthwhile to give a source for this basic point, but rules are rules so here's an NBER paper by Barry Eichengreen on some of the history of reserve currencies.

Author
Account Strength
100%
Account Age
10 years
Verified Email
Yes
Verified Flair
No
Total Karma
111,340
Link Karma
3,183
Comment Karma
106,673
Profile updated: 3 days ago
Posts updated: 7 months ago

Subreddit

Post Details

We try to extract some basic information from the post title. This is not always successful or accurate, please use your best judgement and compare these values to the post title and body for confirmation.
Posted
1 year ago