I'm talking about the Purple Wedding, of course.

Most people on this subreddit seem convinced Joffrey will kick the bucket in episode two (or possibly three) of Season 4. This speculation probably arose when GRRM announced that he wrote the script for episode two. I understand why people are quick to assume that it will happen then. Episode ten of season 3 covered ASOS Tyrion VI, where Tywin sends Joff to bed. Then there's only one more Tyrion chapter before Joff and Margaery's wedding festivities begin. However, that doesn't mean that the Purple Wedding will be shown so quickly into Season 4.

Let's consider all of the things that the show has to do before the PW can kick off:

• Ser Dontos has to be reintroduced as a way for Sansa to escape the Lannisters, and he has to give her the silver hairnet.

• Oberyn Martell and the Dornishmen have to be introduced. Tyrion and Bronn will have to meet with them and Oberyn has to establish his desire for vengeance for Elia's murder.

• The Mountain will have to be reintroduced, because he hasn't had screen time for a whole season.

• Mace Tyrell will have to be introduced, and his distrust of the Dornishmen will have to be established.

• Whatever set up they are planning with Shae will have to go somewhere. Clearly David and Dan are going in a different direction here, and we don't see Shae after the PW until Tyrion's trial.

• Something will have to happen with Jamie and Brienne. They were not in King's Landing for the Wedding in the books. That may mean that we'll get Jamie and Tywin's conversation about leaving the King's Guard and Brienne's scuffle with Loras before the wedding.

And that's just King's Landing. The show will also have to follow Daenerys leaving Yunkai, Jon recovering and preparing at the wall, Stannis and the gang shipping north, Arya and the hound, Bran and co., Reek and Ramsay, etc.

So, i just see that there's no way that the Purple Wedding will happen in episode two. I don't see it happening in episode three either. There's too much material that needs to be covered beforehand. There's really no reason to assume that GRRM is writing the Purple Wedding any way. And, personally I believe David and Dan don't want to end Jack Gleeson's excellent performance so early into the season.

So, when will the Purple Wedding be? My guess is around mid-season, episode 5. That way the second half of the season (in King's Landing) focuses on Tyrion's trial. What do you think, denizens of /r/asoiaf?

EDIT:

Some of you have been asking about Ser Dontos. There was an interview a while back where the show runners implied that Ser Dontos will be shown again. To me that says Dontos will help Sansa escape, and will be present at the wedding. Viewers need some time to remember who Dontos is, and come to know why Sansa is desperate enough to do as he says. The first two episodes of Season 3 really just served to start of each character's respective story lines, so I still do not see the PW happening so soon into Season 4.