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How can the NOAA Claim 2014 was the hottest year on record when they give a confidence rating of "more unlikely than likely"?
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FireFoxG is
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Taking into account the uncertainty and assuming all years (1880-2014) in the time series are independent, the chance of 2014 being the Warmest year on record: 48.0%
Straight from the NOAA
Probability 33.3% - 50% : Descriptor "more unlikely than likely"
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-1
How is it that NASA and the NOAA can issue press releases stating that 2014 is the hottest year on record, when the NOAA's own internal confidence rating is 48% which correlates to, and I quote, "more unlikely than likely"?
Given the statistical uncertainty, can they genuinely claim 2014 was the hottest year on record?
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