I sometimes go to penny socials / Chinese auctions. I've had it in my head that putting in a smaller number of tickets for a large number of items gives me a greater chance of winning than putting in a large number of tickets for fewer items, but I can't work out the math to show one way or the other. I'd love some help!

Each event operates somewhat differently, but the basic premise is this: visitors buy tickets for a small price, usually a penny or a quarter per ticket. There is no upper limit on tickets for the individual or the event. There are a large number of items you 'bid' on by tossing as many tickets as you'd like into the auction basket. These are combined and a winner is chosen for the item. Those tickets are then tossed.

Play proceeds until all items are auctioned off.

Let's say I buy 100 tickets, there are 25 items and 50 people at the event. Let's also assume that I just want to win as much as possible and I don't value one prize more than another. Other people generally value each prize differently so there are varying number of entries in each auction, but if it's easiest to assume their are equal number of entries that's okay too.

My assumption has been that submitting 4 of my tickets for each item gives me a greater chance of winning than bidding 10 tickets each for 10 items. But I know intuition often has no place in statistics :)