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I have a car that's worth $5400 and a probability of 1/900 of being stolen
I have a watch that's worth $600 and a probability of 1/30 of being stolen.
The events of being stolen are independent.
Calculate the probabilities of all the possible scenarios of things being stolen
Answer:
Nothing Stolen(899/900 * 29/30 = 26071/27000)
Only car stolen(1/900 * 29/30= 29/27000)
Only watch stolen(899/900 * 1/30= 899/27000)
Both being stolen(1/900 * 1/30 = 1/27000)
Now calculate the EXPECTED VALUE:
For some reason I decided that I will take the independent probability of the watch being stolen independent prob of car being stolen the combined probability of both being stolen
Thus: 1/900(5400) 1/30(600) 1/27000(6000)= 26.22222222
But this is the INCORRECT answer
The CORRECT answer is taking all the conditional probabilities and adding them up. Thus,
29/27000(5400) 899/27000(600) 1/27000(6000)=26
OR
Just the independent probabilities alone 1/900(5400) 1/30(600) = 26
My question is why is the way I reasoned incorrect?
Why can the independent probabilities alone by themselves give the exact same answer as all the conditional probabilities combined?
Thank you
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