I have these two problems, and the trick is that there is missing data on them, so I'm supposed to add a made up variable and made up data when needed.

These are the two problems:

1- First problem:

• There is a 50% chance that, in at least one of the next five years, the planet's average annual temperature will temporarily exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5%°C, the lower limit of the Paris agreement on climate change, according to a new WMO report. And those probabilities increase with the passage of time.

• The chances of global warming exceeding that mark were almost zero in 2015, but have continued to increase since then. For the period between 2017 and 2021 they were calculated at 10%, while for the period from 2022 to 2026 that percentage reaches almost 50%.

• “This 1.5°C threshold is not a random number, but rather indicates the point at which the effects of climate will become increasingly detrimental not only to people, but to the entire planet,” said the secretary of the OMM, Professor, Petteri Taalas.

• Additionally, there is a 93% chance that at least one of the years from 2022 to 2026 will become the warmest on record, knocking 2016 out of first place. According to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, the probability that the five-year average for the period 2022-2026 will be higher than the average for the last five years (2017-2021) is also 93%.

• The bulletin, produced by internationally renowned climatologists and using the best forecasting systems in the world, provides governments with practical information. "As long as greenhouse gas emissions do not stop, temperatures will continue to rise. In parallel, the oceans will continue to warm and become more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise and weather conditions will become increasingly warming is disproportionately more pronounced in the Arctic and what happens in that region affects us all," added Taalas.

• The latest predictions confirm that the sustained increase in global temperatures will continue.

• For each year between 2022 and 2026, the average annual temperature is expected to be between 1.1°C and 1.7°C higher than pre-industrial levels, which correspond to the average for the period 1850-1900.

• There is a 48% chance that in at least one year, global near-surface temperatures will exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C. The probability that the five-year average exceeds this threshold is minimal (10%).

• “If a year in the period 2022-2026 were to exceed this value of 1.5 °C, this would not mean that the symbolic threshold of the Paris Agreement had been exceeded, but it would show that we are getting closer and closer to a situation in which that the 1.5°C limit could be exceeded for a long period of time," explained Leon Hermanson, an expert at the United Kingdom Met Office who prepared the report.

• The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the planet and keep the global temperature rise this century below 2°C, while seeking to limit the increase to 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels.

• According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming of 1.5°C will exacerbate climate-related risks to which natural and human systems are currently exposed.

• In 2021, the global average temperature was 1.1°C above pre-industrial reference levels, according to the provisional version of the WMO report entitled State of the global climate in 2021, the final version of which will be published on 18 May.

• Consecutive La Niña events in early and late 2021 led to a reduction in global temperatures, but that cooling effect is only temporary and does not reverse the long-term global warming trend. Furthermore, if an El Niño episode were to occur, it would cause an immediate rise in temperatures, as occurred in 2016, the warmest year on record to date.

• At the moment, there are no indications that point to the formation of an El Niño episode in the quarter from December to February 2022/2023. Compared to the 1991 to 2020 average, the temperature anomaly in the Arctic is projected to be more than triple the global average anomaly.

2- Second problem:

• The forecast rainfall pattern for 2022 suggests a higher probability of drier conditions in southwestern Europe and southwestern North America, and higher rainfall in northern Europe, the Sahel, northeastern Brazil and Australia.

• Compared to the 1991 to 2020 average, the average May to September forecast rainfall over the next five years suggests a higher likelihood of wetter conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Africa. Siberia, while in the Amazon region conditions will be drier.

• For the period from November to March between 2022/2023 and 2026/2027, there will be increased rainfall in the tropics and reduced rainfall in the subtropics, conditions consistent with the expected effects of climate warming.

-The exercises:

Represent each of the problems in the following ways:

• In a matrix
• Using a Markov chain for the next 5 years
• In a system of linear equations
• In the form of sets
• Through relation
• In logical form

-My issues:

I'm having trouble identifying what data I need to use to solve the exercises.

In the first problem, I can identify three different kinds of data (the period of years that passes, the probability of the temperature increasing and the temperature values) but I think I should only have two values to use throughout the exercises, so which two values should I use, for instance to make a matrix?

In the second problem, the only data given is the years, otherwise there is no relationship between the areas mentioned. I should come up with a made up variable and made up data to be able to solve the 6 exercises, could I get some guidance about what information I could add to this problem?