I will preface this by saying my math knowledge is not great.

I am attempting to learn some of the foundations for statistics, and came across this explanation for calculating the probability of two consecutive events:

The chance of getting a 1 in 5 outcome twice in a row depends on whether the events are independent or dependent. * If the events are independent, meaning the outcome of one event doesn't affect the probability of the other, then you simply multiply the probability of getting a 1 in 5 outcome twice. So, the chance would be (1/5) * (1/5) = 1/25. * If the events are dependent, meaning the outcome of the first event affects the probability of the second, then the chance would be different. For example, if you're drawing cards without replacement from a deck of 5 cards with only one successful outcome, the chance of getting that outcome twice in a row would be much lower after the first draw.

Fair enough on the first part, but the second confused me. Not because of how dependent events are calculated, I think I understand that concept well enough. The example scenario seems wrong - or bad, at least.

I will refrain from giving my interpretation of why I think it's wrong until someone weighs in on if they think it's right or not. I got in an argument with my friend over it (they are way smarter at this than I), so I'd like to know if I'm just a dumbass for thinking the scenario doesn't make sense.

Thanks in advance for reading all this, and for any insights!