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About the Congressional objections to Arizona's electoral vote
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____-__________-____ is in Congress, AZ
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Hey, I'm a New Orleanian who was watching the counts on C-Span on Wednesday and wanted to learn more about the objections that were being made about Arizona's vote. I couldn't find much discussion on the merits, so I did a little Google research and wanted to share what I found because this will probably continue to be a talking point even after the riots.

The Congressional opposition argument is that AZ's voter registration deadline's extension was unconstitutional because it came from a judge rather than the legislature, and that the votes made by people who registered during the extension should not be counted. This objection was probably picked because it's similar to a Pennsylvania issue that the pre-Coney Barrett SCOTUS voted 4-4 on and so the current SCOTUS might rule 5-4.

Arizona's registration extension was the subject of a lawsuit back in October where the appeals court ruled 2-1 on party lines to end the extension early, but to keep the voters on the rolls.

So, what would happen if this went to the Supreme Court now and they ruled 5-4 to remove those votes? Arizona Central reports that during the extension there were 10,922 new Republicans registered, 8,292 Democrats, 498 Libertarians, and 15,422 independents. Edison Research's exit polls say that Independents and Libertarians in Arizona voted 53% for Biden and 44% for Trump. So you can apply those percentages to the extension registrants to get a back-of-the-envelope guess of how the extension affected the election:

 

Total Votes Democrat Republican Independent Libertarian
Biden 17,365 8,929 0 8,173 263
Trump 17,925 0 10,922 6,785 217

 

In other words, exit polls indicate the probably netted Trump a few hundred votes and removing these votes would increase Biden's win. Even if the exit polls are off by some percent, Trump is unlikely to "find" the 10,458 votes he'd need to win AZ by striking down these votes.

And I'm just a random internet person who spent half an hour Googling and writing this up. The people in DC objecting to this have an army of million-dollar lawyers. They know the results won't change. So they're not doing this based on the merits of the case.

Stepping back from the details and just looking at the big picture... funny how these arguments always seem to be about having fewer people have the right to vote.

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3 years ago