Hey all,

Just a quick little deal I drummed up as I was wondering where things average out and how far people should expect to climb with reasonable play time.

First off, we need to understand how the tiers work:

Cleanly ends at 1,000 RP to reach Apex Predator, which is neat-o. However, there is an associated cost for each rank just to 'play' the matches, as we all know - nothing for bronze, 1 for silver, 2 for gold, and so on. You can't derank from one tier to a lower one (Silver to Bronze, Gold to Silver, etc.), but you can derank divisions (Silver III to Silver IV), except in Bronze because there's no associated cost at all. This is all included in the main patch notes post by Respawn, though, so I won't beat a dead horse.

To answer the question "how far can I climb", we first need to understand how much RP gain we can expect at each tier. We do this by finding out the average RP gained per match:

1 point per kill, with a rough average of 60 kills (several revives per game, minus disconnects and people getting over 5 kills since it maxes at 5 points for kills) to make the math easy.

We also get points for placing in the top 10, top 5, top 3, and champion:

So we get a "nearly guaranteed" (minus disconnects) 132 points per match as well from finishing top 10 or better. 132 60 = 192 average RP per match. 192 / 60 = 3.2 average RP per player per match. Again because of disconnects and whatnot we can easily round this down to 3, and say "it's probably a bit higher than 3 RP per player per match".

This leaves, on average:

The takeaway here is that the average player (in a vacuum) should be able to push out of gold given enough time and patience, and then they will 'plateau', so to speak, in Platinum. Once you hit Plat, you need to have above-average games/skill to push out to Diamond (meaning there will be a LOT of players sitting at Platinum IV because they don't have the skill to average more than 3 points per game), and depending on 'how good' you are it will take shorter or longer to do so. Obviously Diamond is a more exaggerated version of this and the upper tiers of Apex Predator will be even more exaggerated.

• For context, say you make it to Apex Predator. Now just to average one point per game in gains, you need to get an average of 6 points each game. Against the best players in the world. This means some combination of kills and placements that puts you at 6 RP each game. Top 10? You need 4 kills. Top 5? You need 2 kills. Banking on hiding until the last circle for a top 3 for 7 points? Good luck, I've seen countless games in Platinum and Diamond on streams that end up with 6 squads in round 4. Those 14 squads that died previously? Most of them lost 3-5 points that game.

TL;DR:

Cheaters throw a wrench in everything, at least until/unless Respawn actually puts a solid fix in place to get rid of them or at least significantly reduce their number, but this is how the numbers work out. Expect to be stuck in gold for a long time if you feel like you are around average level. If you play enough you should reach Plat and then basically plateau there.

Check the graphs above for a bit more TL;DR info. :)

EDIT: As an aside - I think Respawn is going to look at the post-season numbers and realize that this system is kind of janky when they see the insane number of people in high gold and especially Plat IV. I'm predicting that Plat III to I are going to be basically empty, and another big slog in Diamond IV for the above-average-but-not-amazing players.

This system works for Bronze to Gold I, but once Plat hits it's too jarring a transition from 'averaging 1 point per game' to 'averaging 0 points per game' for 60 players in the match. It's a decent enough system, but the level of thought going into it was very minimal. Using it as a sort of pseudo-placement for future seasons is fine, though, as long as they improve the system in the future.

SECOND EDIT: Posted on the main sub here if you want to check that out as well. Same info, it's just on the bigger sub, so it will have more discussion going on (if it hits the front page at least). :)