Let's go for a short state by state analysis.

Northeast/Atlantic

Big Boss, easily. No one is disputing this.

Southern/Dixie

Viktard, easily. No one is disputing this.

Sacagawea/Midwest

People seem to think this is a 3 way fight. This is completely ridiculous. Big Boss will win the Midwest. Why? Look at last election's results: The Green-Left had 48 votes, the Distributists had 25, and the Libertarians had 20. As people tend to vote a long party lines, and with the Dists backing out of the freedom coalition and splitting the vote, the Left has a huge advantage.

I fucked up these numbers. Vik has a good shot.

Eastern/Chesapeake

A lot of Dems are here. A lot of Republicans are here. Some socialists are here. Or at least, there were two months ago. If Viktard wants to win, he needs Chesapeake, and if he wants Chesapeake, he needs to pull Dems. The thing is, the Republicans have been pulling a lot of moderate Dems, who seem to have a lot of numbers in Chesapeake. (Possibly due to the Civic Party.) I give Viktard an arbitrary 25-30% chance here. Which is possibly quite generous.

Western

Last Federal election, the Republicans did not have a lot of votes here, but last state elections, the Republicans had a grand ol' surge. If this trend continues, they have a chance to win here, but again the Left has an advantage. I honestly think Western and Eastern are in much the same situation. So probably around 25-30%, arbitrarily chosen.

Central/Great Lakes

Central. The Kingmaker. The place where I spoiled the election for Ncontas. Central's significance has been somewhat weakened, because its constitution has now given it proportional EVs, but that also makes things a bit more interesting. Let's look at some data.

The Assembly vote:

Libertarians - 54 votes

Socialists - 44 votes

Democrats - 29 votes

Republicans - 16 votes

The Senate vote:

Libertarians - 58 votes

Socialists - 56 votes

Liberals - 25 votes

The Congressional vote:

/u/bomalia [ 36] - 3 votes

Liberal Party - 4 votes

Libertarian Party - 13 votes

Republican Party - 16 votes

Democratic Party - 23 votes

Socialist Party - 33 votes

What does any of that mean? The Congressional vote shows a clear Left majority, but the Assembly vote tells a tight vote, and the Senate shows a possible Viktard victory if we assume those who vote for a centrist leaning party would vote for a centrist leaning candidate. If Viktard can win the swing-ish states of West and East, he needs a majority in Central. I give it a 30-35% chance, arbitrarily.

What does it all mean?

Viktard has a small chance at Vikt-ory, but he still has a chance. If the Republican Party has made the gains it needs, perhaps even had a small migration out of Dixie to East, West, and Central, for the slight edge Viktard needs, then they can put up a fight. However, it's an uphill battle. Bigg-Boss is the likely victor.

Okay, I got the wrong numbers for Midwest. Big Boss still has an advantage, but a smaller one. Republicans still need a surge or they'll get Ncontas's loss 2.0 with some extra central EVs.