The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

https://archive.li/pyKZ2

BJ Campbell has continued his series on guns. (He's a poster in this sub, not sure if I should ping him)

His math leads to a shocking conclusion:

Do the same math as we did above with the floodplains, in precisely the same way, and we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.

This is a bigger chance than your floodplain-bound home getting flooded out during your mortgage.

But You’re Cheating

Am I? Two instances in 340 years is not a great data pool to work with, I will grant, but if you take a grab sample of other countries around the world you’ll see this could be much worse.

To quote a "math friend" of mine: "I think his math is oversimplistic on estimating probabilities. But overall, his approach is a good idea and even if his probabilities are are off by a lot, it still much more likely than is intuitive."

The rest of his series:

Everybody’s Lying About the Link Between Gun Ownership and Homicide

The Left Is Making the Wrong Case on Gun Deaths. Here’s a Better Case.

The Gun Homicide Epidemic Isn’t

The Magic Gun Evaporation Fairy

Real Talk about School Shootings

The Gun Solution

The Media Engine of Chaos

The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

Tags: [guns][gun control]