The Caucasian Spring of 1936

Introduction: The Balkans of the East

Like the Balkans, the Caucasus is an ethnically diverse and mountainous region, with many historical conflicts frozen until today. In order to understand the modern political landscape of the Caucasus we must understand the historical background behind this powderkeg.

The modern state of the Caucasus was born in 1919 from the Caucasus Conference and the Treaty of Constantinople. Devised by Germany as a mean to seize absolute influence in the region, the Conference created a post war order in which Georgia and Azerbaijan would both fall under the influence of Germany, detached from the Ottoman Empire, at the expense of the Armenians. Despite this however, the Armenian dream lives on, especially on the mountains of Zangezur and Karabakh, with the Republic of Mountainous Armenia lead by the charismatic cavalry Garegin “Nzhdeh” Ter-Harutyunyan. Ironically, those who killed the dreams of an independent Armenia also happened to be the only one protecting it, as every time the Azerbaijani government would attempt a hostile pacification of the rebellious Armenian areas, the German government would send an ultimatum forcing them to back down.

In the Ottoman Empire, where the majority of Armenian land now lies, a brutal program of “resettlement” was carried out throughout the 20s and 30s, resettling Armenians from their homeland deep into Central Anatolia. Often dubbed the Silent Genocide by Communard press, this program left the Autonomous Vilayet of Erivan depopulated, and with a significant Turkish and Azeri minority. Ottoman troops have so far managed to maintain order in the region, though border raids and terrorist attacks conducted based from the Republic of Mountainous Armenia is still often conducted in the area.

Thus, as the situation stands, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), more commonly known as Dashnaks, hold extensive connections amongst the international Armenian diaspora, and often launches terror attacks in Armenia, the Ottoman Empire and abroad.

This is the situation, heading into the Caucasian Spring of 1916.

Georgia On My Mind

Georgia sits as an anomaly in the world stage. A socialist nation and yet deeply tied to Germany. A socialist Menshevik ruling party, which increasingly turns conservative in appealing to its rural voters. Georgia is a nation that is hostile to essentially all of its neighbours, and reliant on Germany ever since a defensive pact was signed with the Kaiserreich in 1918.

Despite its appearances however, Georgia is a stable and prosperous nation that is while in theory democratic, no parties have ever gotten a majority aside from the Social Democratic Party of Georgia (Mensheviks). While having lost an increasing share of votes since its inception and the country’s independence, the highly politicized nature of the Georgian Army means that most political analysts agree that the Mensheviks can exert hold a deathgrip on the nation, thus even though for the time being it’s with a democratic mandate, it does not need said mandate to control the nation, should it lose it.

In recent years, increasing waves of Georgian nationalism means that the Mensheviks are having to toe a very thin line. Export of raw materials to Germany alongside the Baku-Poti pipeline land lease provided the Georgian government with a stable revenue, but increasing public discontent with the effective German control over the country has forced the Social Democratic Party to reevaluate its stance going forward into the future. The fact that Georgian ports are run by private German companies, Georgian railways are owned and operated by German companies, Georgian mines were created and owned by once again, the Germans, rinse and repeat, means that the government and the economy essentially relies on a group of German corporations.

This vulnerability was exposed when Black Monday struck. With the stock market collapsing German companies operating in Georgia now require bailouts in order to survive. When the Georgian government failed to provide almost overnight thousands of jobs were lost as workers were laid off en masse. Seen as a German made catastrophe, anti-German sentiment in Georgia reached its highest point. Large protests in the streets of Tpilisi calling for the resignation of President Zhordania numbered in the tens of thousands, with certain elements rioting in the streets. Law enforcements have mostly been unable to resolve the situation, and thus the Georgian Government and Constituent Assembly have had to resort to barricading themselves inside the Palace. Reports of similar riots were going on in other cities, with German businesses and factories being especially targetted by riots, even potentially threatening the Baku - Poti pipeline.

Azerbaijan’s Rapid Chemical Decomposition Inside Automobiles Problems

February 14th, 1936

A married couple was walking in the streets of Baku to a movie theatre, it was the premiere of the new German movie Ein Haufen Hunde. Just mere 15 years ago this wouldn’t have been possible, Azerbaijan was a poor backwater nation with a dream post-independence. Now, even niche western art films could find itself making its way to be shown at a moderate sized Baku theatre. The couple, 43 year old Ramiz Elarizlü, a carpenter and 39 year old Arzu Famillu, a German middle school language teacher were avid film goers, and so it would be as good as any of a choice to go to the movies for their Valentines.

Witnesses say they couldn’t recognize the bodies.

The bomb was planted underneath a Ford that was parked outside of the theatre, killing the couple and injuring 4 others who were buying tickets. The suspects were immediately clear as Dashnaks were blamed for the attack. In a nation already troubled greatly by Black Monday, despite ARF terror attacks being common occurrence, the situation tipped an already contentious issue into a boiling point, with a government quick to find a scapegoat for the economic downturn. Armenian businesses were vandalized and many properties destroyed. February 26th saw an especially gruesome event as armed Azeri thugs murdered an unarmed Armenian family of 4 in Ganja, Gazakh, leading the local governor to order for the relocation of all 25,000 Armenians out of the city, citing safety concerns. The event was dubbed the Ganja pogrom, as local law enforcements begin to evict Armenians from their homes and seizing their property. Calls have been made to the Azerbaijan government to liberate Karabakh and Zangezur from the Armenian threat.

The Dashnaks have not laid still, 2 consecutive bombings near the Surakhany oil field and Bibi-Heybat oil field did some damage to the infrastructure, including destroying the only bubble pump at the latter field. However this did enough to shake investor confidence (or what’s left of it post-Black Monday), leading to uncertainty and a temporary stop on production as the facilities were locked down to have their security upgraded.

This rapidly escalating situation may seem strange for outside observers, however this needs to be put within context. The increasingly Azeri Nationalist ruling party Musavat had only barely regained its control of Parliament in 1933 thanks to German secret intervention. Despite this however it was clear that anti-German sentiment was the predominant view amongst the populace, as despite the oil wealth greatly improving the lives of those living in the Baku urban area, barely any changes have been observed by the populace, with the anti-German, social democratic Himmat Party’s policies in the short period of time in 1932 that it had power being the only attempt in the last 18 years of independence of the government in Baku taking any actions to remedy this divide between Baku and the rest of the country. With most of the party on German payroll from the oil fields and heavy financial backing from Germany now drying up, the Musavat leadership had to seek enemies elsewhere, a role which the long chastise Armenian minority perfectly plays. This is a great gamble, as immediately the day after the Ganja pogrom the opposition Himmat, Ahrar and Socialist parties all tabled an immediate motion of no confidence against Nasib Yusifbeyli’s Musavat-Kesbkarliq coalition government, citing great mismanagement of the crisis at hand, both economically and socially. The motion passed, barely at 55 aye, 54 nay, 2 Kesbkarliq MP having defected party line, disagreeing with the current government’s handling of Black Monday. A new election is set to be held in September, in the midst of a recession, possible war in Karabakh, and thousands of Armenians still living in makeshift tents and suffering from horrendous abuse. In other words, “Great”.

And the Ottomans’ Rapidly Growing Problem in the Mountains

Black Monday was not kind towards the House of Osmanoglu’s Empire either. In this, one of the most affected is the Autonomous Vilayet of Erivan, and more specifically, the plurality Armenian population here. With mass layoffs, local businesses - most of whom has Turkish owners - often prefer to lay off their Armenian employees. While the Governor of the Vilayet Kâzım Karabekir has attempted to remedy the situation by providing government jobs program towards the local Armenian populace - something which the central government in Constantinople cannot claim to have done - the fact is that the Armenian population is the one most disproportionately affected.

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation immediately took advantage of this, utilizing the recent relaxation in censorship for Armenian press to disguise recruitment ads inside the few approved Armenian newspapers. The ARF has also connected Diaspora charity organizations to arrive in the region to assist the local Armenian populace, driving Karabekir into a tough situation, whether to let them claim the credit or to ban these organizations, the optics of which is unfathomably bad. It was ultimately decide that these organizations can continue their operations in the Vilayet. Unbeknownst to Ottoman law enforcements however, these charities also have a second purpose, as smuggled American arms inside aid packages start to flow in through the customs at Batum, inbound for Erivan. Perhaps they’re just arriving there for decorations?

Despite not being affected by the Caucasian Spring, the Ottoman Empire arguably is the one most at threat, as a growing problem rapidly grows underneath the Sultanate’s noses. But so what? Even if Armenia rebels, the might of the Imperial Army will simply crush them like it did in ‘21. Nobody’s there to help the Armenians, as shown back then as well.

But perhaps, just so perhaps, 1936 isn’t 1921.