Hey folks! Just sharing my thoughts on Disney after the last quarter earnings. Also, I would love you know your thoughts as well :)

Bull thesis

• Revenue from Disney Parks is going back to levels before COVID.
• Disney has more than 100 years of history as a business that shows longevity in the company.
• Revenue has increased 13.52% during last year.
• Incredible collection of movies and rights such as Disney Animation, Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar and Fox.
• Disney is expected to be profitable in FY 2024.
• Disney is well positioned in Sports streamming with ESPN
• Merge of Disney and Hulu could improve the variety and quality of their content in the streaming into only one platform, this may increase the number of subscribers.
• Entertainment content such as movies and series will always be watched by people, although the way of consuming it has changed in the history of cinema. Lately, society is moving from TV to streaming which right now could be seen as a lousy business, Ionetheless I believe in the success of it in the long term. For this, it is likely to be needed in the future a mix of increase in number of subscribers, ads and an increase in the subscription cost.
• P/B of 1.68. Although the assets of Disney are in their majority intangible, those assets are brands with a huge power and potential.

Bear thesis

• Disney is focused on streaming business that as it is well known, it is money consuming and pretty competitive.
• Revenue in TV is declining.
• Uncertainty of what will happen in the company after Bog Iger leaves.
• Disney lost 4 millions subscribers during last quarter.
• P/FCF ratio of 120.76 which shows that the FCF is not in a great moment.
• Disney could fail in the streamming business taking in account the power of other competitors in it such as Netflix, WBD or Paramount.

Conclusion

I believe Disney is going through a terrible moment but I reckon they will be able to continue improving their profitability and increasing their revenue for the next decade.

At 89.08$ a share, for me it is a company that I am willing to buy and hold for more than a decade if the principles of the business don´t change and they continue working on their success.