Today, a citizen's initiative to recall Mayor Regina Romero was announced, citing an alleged failure to meet Tucson's needs and divisive politics. The group needs 25,000 valid signatures before February 21, 2021 in order for a resignation or a forced election.

However, it should be noted that Mayor Romero won the election with 55% of the cast votes which is a significant majority. The major opposition candidate, Ed Ackerley, won 39% of the vote. This seems like a decisive victory, however Ackerley's yield was 37,104 votes in the above unofficial tally. That far exceeds the number of signatures needed.

I can see a few ways that the group may win or not.

Win: Romero has been seen as far-left in a politically mixed city. She has prioritized combating climate change and enforcing the mask mandate as parts of her mayorship, which have been wedge issues for many

Win: There is a possibility the votes for Ackerley were people uninterested in Romero's candidacy. These people might have seen her unfit for a variety of reasons, and will use this opportunity to exact that belief. Back in last July before the election, it was reported that 1/3rd of voters were still undecided.

Lose: 55% of the vote is still significant. That indicates, against a third party candidate then in Mike Cease of the Green Party, that a majority of people are satisfied with her as a candidate, and likely as a mayor.

Lose: Her identity as the first Latina mayor and first Hispanic since 1876 were not insignificant. In fact, it made national news. This, along with her incumbency, has made her pretty impervious as it stands.

The most important factor in both is turnout. In the election last year, as seen in the above unofficial, only 37% of registered voters cast a ballot. This can be a huge motivator either way, and it isn't clear that participation will move any direction without candidates' input. We'll just have to see what happens. What are your thoughts?

edit: changed some words and order

edit^2: 37%, not 0.001%. Thank you, /u/IWorkWithID10Ts