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Was the #Hama offensive a defensive move to preempt an #Assad offensive on #Idlib?
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5kyLaw is in Hama
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I expect that we will see the front lines in Hama return to the pre-offensive demarcation, with some skirmishes here and there, but effectively returning to a stalemate. The regime is losing substantial amounts of men and armor in the open-terrain environment of rural Hama and there doesn't seem to be any shortage of rebel ATGMs. The rebels likely took heavy losses too (though video evidence is not available).

Some may call the rebel offensive on Hama a defeat, but such analysis may be missing sight of the rebels' true intentions. I highly doubt the rebel goal was to seize Hama city in this offensive (that would have been extremely unrealistic). Rather, I think the plan was to seize as much territory as possible and take advantage of some short-term targets of opportunity, fully realizing that the regime would shift significant manpower and resources to the vulnerable Hama front.

Indeed, the primary goal may have been to make the regime move men around so that the opposition could fight the regime on ground more favorable to the opposition (rural Hama) rather than on the western Aleppo front. In Hama, I think the rebel lines will ultimately hold. Whereas, if we saw this mass concentration of regime forces in Western Aleppo, it is possible if not likely that the regime would have made significant advances and may have even entered Idlib province, especially if the YPG would have provided support for the regime offensive by simultaneously attacking from Afrin canton (the YPG has been talking about an offensive on Idlib for weeks).

In other words, the rebel offensive on Hama may have actually been a defensive move to preempt an offensive by the regime axis and the YPG on Idlib from Western Aleppo. The rebels preferred Hama as a battlefield over Western Aleppo and thus forced the regime's hand.

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7 years ago