Good Afternoon Apes, I would like to introduce you to something called the, CBOE Volatility Index or VIX. What is this you ask? Well here is the definition from Investopedia:

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market's expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants.

In short, it tracks the volatility of the S&P 500, the higher the volatility, the higher the price for VIX.

Investopedia also says this:

In absolute terms, VIX values greater than 30 are generally linked to large volatility resulting from increased uncertainty, risk, and investors’ fear. VIX values below 20 generally correspond to stable, stress-free periods in the markets.

​

VIX vs. SPY (the purple line).

As we can see here, the only times that VIX has gone beyond the 40 dollar mark so far was during these following times:

• August 1998 - Bear Market (S&P dropped by 15%).
• September 2008 - The Infamous Global Financial Crisis (S&P dropped by about 48% in 6 months).
• August 2011 - Black Monday (S&P dropped fell about 21% between May 2nd and October 4th of that year).
• March 2020 - The Covid-19 Pandemic (Fell about 34% from its record highs, bottomed out on March 23).

As we can see the VIX, mainly crosses the 40 dollar mark when some there is some kind of financial crisis. Now what does that have to do with VIX now? Well fellow apes, let me just show you the call options for VIX for April 21st:

​

VIX call options for April 21 as of 04-13.

And lets compare that to this week, or the week of April 28:

VIX call options for April 14 as of 04-13.

VIX call options for April 28 as of 04-13.

Hmm... that's pretty weird, all I can gather from this is that a lot of people believe in that on the week of the 21st of April the S&P will be encountering incredible volatility. How did I come to this conclusion? Well, if we take a look back on the options for April 21st, the highest OI is at the $60 strike (191k OI). As of right now, VIX has only ever gone past $60 dollars on two events: The 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 crash. Furthermore the options go quite for a few weeks then wake up around May 19, where it really gets crazy.

​

VIX call options for May 19 as of 04-13.

VIX call options for June 16 as of 04-13.

VIX call options for July 21 as of 04-13.

VIX call options for August 18 as of 04-13.

VIX call options for September 15 as of 04-13.

As we can see the these some of the OI of these call options are at crazy strike prices:

• On May 19 the strike with the highest OI is $55 (87.6k OI)
• June 16 is $30 (114.6k OI) although the $110 strike has 110k OI
• July 25 is $25 (255.9k OI) although $40 dollars has 230k OI.
• August 18 is $42.50 (53.3k OI).
• September 15 is $60 (93k OI).

I am a total market newbie and as such would like the expertise of more wrinkled-brain apes. But the way I am interpreting what I'm seeing is that a lot of people believe that their is an incoming market crash, possibly on the same scale as the 2008 financial crisis or even worse (see the June 16 OI) and recent actions by Warren Buffet (selling a ton of his bank stock) seems to agree with this theory.

Now, what could possibly cause such a massive amount of volatility in the market? If you have been in this subreddit you might have seen the DDs talking about how the entire financial system in a very fragile house of cards right now and gust of wind in the wrong direction could bring it all down.

My theory is that if and when GME explodes and ends up leaving the galaxy, all of the dirty tricks that these shorts have been doing is going to blow up the financial market. Though I would like to get your opinion, what could possibly happen in the next few months that could trigger such insane bets on VIX? most of these OI appear above $30 which means people are expecting the S&P to tank.

TLDR: A lot of OI on VIX call options above $30 shows that people believe that the market is going to go down. Some of the monthly option have a shit ton of OI at strike prices only achieved with a financial crisis. Possibly preparation for the blowback from the GME squeeze?

EDIT: Spelling and Grammar

EDIT 2: Changed Good Morning to Good Afternoon, forgot that afternoons exist XD.

EDIT 3: Forgot to add: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE