Welcome back to another edition of Open Interest - the only GME price movement forecast dedicated to an analysis of the options market!

Hieronymus, Patron Saint of Liquidity

The Macroeconomics gurus tell me the Fed meeting yesterday was 'right down the middle.' I'm not sure what that means besides 'things are chill.' We got our 25 BP rate cut, but mortgage rates remain unchanged at around 7% and commercial property delinquency is approaching all-time highs. So "buy more GME and continue to hold?" Got it. Let's take a look at our data!

Price Movement Recap

11/7 Trading Day 1min Aggregation

After an early test of $23 off the open, traders modestly walked the stock price up to $23.66 on some early bullish flow before orders balanced out throughout the remainder of the day and the stock-price undulated mildly within the context of the upper VWAP channel. Intraday RSI overbought and oversold signals guided decision-making on some of the larger intraday reversals, but in total, trading was flat in comparison to our trading earlier in the week and last week, despite decently elevated volume and options premium flows. This is likely the result our dense, heavy call-gamma skewed environment which makes trading slow and lacking volatility as a result of antipathetic dealer hedging. Nonetheless, the continued bullish flows still obligate MM share accumulation and push the stock price slowly higher without major intraday retracement. Consolidation at $23 for the second day in a row was a good sign.

OI Changes Max Pain

Max Pain strikes are unmoved into November OPEX, remaining at $21 and $20 for this week and next respectively. 11/8 expiry has seen net OI contraction with traders taking profits or cutting losses ahead of JPOW's announcement yesterday (which proceeded exactly as expected with a 25 BP rate cut).

11/8 OI Changes 11/7-11/8

Some Puts were added to the board likely as hedges for potential reaction to yesterday's announcement, but not very many traders appear to have been altogether concerned.

11/15 OPEX OI Changes 11/7-11/8

As we look to November OPEX, however, we see some very substantial Call OI expansions took place yesterday. 5000 new contracts at $20 alone were added, split about evenly between BID and ASK. $23 thickened up with over 2000 new Calls and almost 1500 more contracts were added to $25. Put OI, on the other hand, net contracted across all strikes. This action continues to project stable trading conditions pointing toward consolidation above $23 and possible slow, but determined upward pressure approaching $25.

Farther out we did have a few instances of Put OI expansion: over 1100 new Puts at $20 for 11/22 - every single one sold short - and 500 for 12/20 also sold entirely short. Indeed, as Puts come on the board, they are largely popping up short. Bearish sentiment on GME is currently only being expressed through theta-advantaged short call trades.

Gamma Exposure

https://preview.redd.it/dlbkqgqu1ozd1.png?width=466&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b19fd2bb07f38d3ea0d3725be78249a4e883b0d

We can see this continued bullish sentiment expressed in the P/C GEX ratio trends. Despite yesterday's neutral premium skew, we are trending even more bullish toward 1:5. This reflects very high call demand and low put demand in the options market - unsurprising given our recent momentum and elevated IV conditions.

Look at this pure thicccness

As we look at our daily table across all expiries, we can see our key proximal trading strikes - $23, $23.5, $24 - have all accrued more Call gamma with our largest Put Gamma strike at $23 as well. This suggests MM hedging will continue to offer support at $23 into our close today - barring some crazy, unexpected bearish event that causes options flows to swing bearish by the tens of millions. Continued bullish flow, however, will continue to grind us up toward $24 as we seek to claim that level as a consolidated floor into next week:

https://preview.redd.it/4irv9syh9ozd1.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddd0c2f3da07dbc32449f7b8cb2254cd05d6626a

If options flow stays tilted toward calls and inserts itself at $24 and $24.5, we could claim $24-$25 as a new intraday trading bracket, though based on our technical layout and a lack of any specific news to anticipate, I would lean in my forecast toward an upward test of $24 that returns us back to the $23-$24 area with some tests of $24 into November OPEX. At the moment, there is not enough OI built out for the second half of November to get a sense of how traders and institutions intend to play the final two expiries of November leading up to our pre-Q3 earnings report.

Technicals

7/16-10/29 1-Day Aggregation w/ Doodle Projection

10/21-11/6 4-hr Aggregation Actual with Technical Inquiry Marks

So yesterday we got what I sketched on the 4hr chart above. If this periodization structure continues as I have demarcated it, I could see an early test of $24 that reverses to the middle of our $23-$24 bracket - probably below $23.50. If so, I could see a $23 test off the open on Monday, followed by an intraday reversal to test $24 again.

7/16-11/7 1-Day Aggregation

On our daily chart, we are approaching our highest RSI value since our May-June price action (marked). While there's nothing binding here that says we *must* reverse if we cross or touch this line, there is some probability that the options market and swing traders will bet on a small reverse. If we test $24 intraday, we would essentially cross this RSI level. This would prompt a small, probably tighter trend-consistent correction into and out of 11/15 OPEX to potentially set up a bigger breakout as we head into December.

I won't speculate too much here, but hopefully you can grasp within these thought structures what sorts of price oscillations our current developing paradigm projects. Remember, however, that these symbols and signals are *navigational* and not mechanically *causal*. It will depend on the will (capital commitments) of the market participates to actually drive our price action here.

IV Trends

10-Day Mean Implied Volatility

4hr-Aggregation Schwab IV

As we can see, IV is still elevated. However, our slow upward grind keeps much day-to-day appreciation at a minimum. If the 'estimated' date of 12/4 reporting is correct (unconfirmed by the company), then we can expect perhaps a consolidating/flatter or down week following OPEX, with recovery and potential breakout as IV begins to creep upward beginning the week of 11/29. If earnings are announced for 12/11 (what I think will happen), we won't see that IV appreciation start to set in until later.

Synthesis TA;DR

I am expecting a decent likelihood of a $24 test intraday today, but ultimately a close in the middle of our $23-$24 range - barring any unanticipated externalities, news, major player buys, CATalysts, etc. Next week will likely host another $24 test early with some consolidation atop $23 as a continued support. A GME earnings announcement - that is, the date - will give institutions a clearer sense of how to structure the next few weeks in anticipation of the IV Thumper effect. This is, of course, based on the assumption that our current technical and options trends remain constant without external disruption of the system. Something *can* come in and accelerate our price appreciation, though anything of the sort is a black box to me at the moment.

Cheers and good luck out there, everyone!

"Fine. I'll do it myself."

"OMG He's going for a requel!"

PS: Thanks again to all those who have treated me to coffee for the next few weeks. Today's coffee was from Starbucks, courtesy of a user who requested to remain anonymous, but who will surely recognize the shoutout by virtue of the location of purchase. Cheers, friend!

For those of you who are on X, I have, at the encouragement of several users, decided to start crossposting there. These posts will be identical to those found here on Superstonk, so no need to leave the party here. However, just in case there are any 'issues' with my posts in the future, you'll be able to find each and every Open Interest Newsletter in the Articles tab of my profile. Open Interest will remain aimed toward the Superstonk - and GME shareholder - community first and foremost. So, rest assured, this will in no way affect my attention here.

\"Dreams are Messages from the Deep.\"

Thanks again to everyone else as well for making this an excellent spot to share information, discussion, and community as we all try to learn more about the market and GME! My thanks especially to everyone who has voiced support in the comments, reached out directly, or bought me coffees to fuel these regular writing sessions before market open!

ADDITIONAL CLARIFICATION/DISCLAIMER: These posts are NOT intended as exhortations to buy and hold options contracts. I RARELY trade long options positions. When I do, I rarely hold more than 1% of my portfolio in long options and these days it is more like .01%. Options are structured to favor the DEALER. If you are randomly long options contracts because 'you feel it'll work' and you do not have a very well thought out and tested method for restructuring probability in your favor, you will lose. It is an iterative statistical certainty.

Open Interest (this post) is not *trade advice*. Its aim is epistemic or, if you prefer, scientific in nature, namely that the goal is to ascertain knowledge whose truth claim is that it confers some degree of predictive power. This is to say that the 'proof' of this is in whether advantageous use, however construed, can be made of the knowledge which I derive from observation and analysis by my particular methods. I use this knowledge to my advantage by continually updating, reassessing, and renewing my own investment thesis on continuing to HODL $GME. I happen to use a conservative wheel strategy (using CSPs and CCs to replace limit buys and limit sells) in order to maintain this position. How you put this knowledge to your advantage - if you should seek to - is up to you to discover and apply for yourself as an individual investor. Feel free, however, to ask as many questions as you please! I will do my best to share my experience and insight.

Java Table of Honor:
driftthabimmer x5
FrequentPoem x5
HoogyMiles x5
firm-necessary x5
mrskint x3
anon. x3
gaymersunite56 x5
feckitbegrand x5
The Fans x3
HostIntelligent x3 (and 33 awards!!!)
Stereo-soundS x2
JessintheNW x1

Edit: Friends we've got some IV funny business going on. Be extra careful out there!