Find preceding parts here

• Order Imbalance DD - Something is Happening : r/Superstonk (reddit.com)
• Order Imbalance DD - Part 2 Spreadsheet Boogaloo : r/Superstonk (reddit.com)

Finally got around to running that correlation analysis on GME's NYSE Auctions Data

AND THERE IS A CORRELATION

https://preview.redd.it/mdq8ms4x3nmd1.png?width=3030&format=png&auto=webp&s=187668a40179af60e254c40deb5129326b74ac2d

You can find all of my python scripts, CSVs, and line graphs in this google drive folder
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1_P82M9ODMXp4KUv0zK69B30kUesqAjZQ?usp=drive_link

First some quick definitions:

• "Quantity" (total shares involved in auction I believe)
• "14 Day Shifted price" (price of stock shifted 14 days in the future)
• "Max Avg Imbalance Qty" (max value seen across the 5min auction for the Average Imbalance)
• "Change Avg Imbalance Qty" (change from start of auction to end of auction in Average Imbalance)

Second, graph explanation. Values for the various lines have been scaled to fit between -1 and 1. This makes it pretty to look at when you have Quantity values in the millions and Price values <100 for now ;)

To summarize, "Max Avg Imbalance Qty" and "Change Avg Imbalance Qty" showed strong correlations of >.7 and <.8 to the stock price 14 and 15 days in the future. For the graph I shifted the price 14 days in the future.

CONCLUSION

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 13 WILL BE MOASS OR BANANA IN MY ASS

...jk, this is the part where I tell you why I think this correlation is meaningless in and of itself

1. The sample size only goes back to 6/3, therefore its very small and susceptible to all the problems that come with a small sample size (not gonna do the sample size math on this)
2. As you can see on the graph, there were 2 recent price runs that appear to have no correlation to auction data from 14 days previous
3. There are so many other market factors in play that I don't think one metric would ever be a reliable indicator of price movement, but it can certainly be incorporated within a large whole to get an idea of sentiment.
4. Other stocks mentioned in parts 1 and 2 do not show any strong correlations

TL;DR
In our data set going back to 6/3, Average Imbalance data does show a strong correlation to price movement T 14 calendar days, but this data set is too small to bear much weight IMO. We'll just have to see what happens with the rest of September.

I plan on updating this data as we move in the future and hopefully grow this sample size.