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Is Mynaric going to be providing SpaceX and StarLink sats with their CONDOR terminals for laser communication?
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Just wondering if people here had some thoughts about my speculation...
- StarLink is supposed to get, long term, inter-communication abilities on its satellites.
- The first batches, as announced, did not have this feature.
- In late 2019, Gwynne Shotwell indicated in an interview that "by late next year, we'll be flying satellite with lasers that allow them to talk to each other in space and share data, which ensures customers will never lose service."
- The same month, Oct 2019, the company Myanaric announced a $1.7M contract to deliver terminals for a sat constellation customer https://mynaric.com/news/mynaric-announces-e1-7-million-contract-for-delivery-of-satellite-constellation-laser-communication-terminals/ Interestingly the customer was undisclosed.
- 7 months prior, ex-SpaceX engineer Bulent Altan joined Myanaric's board and became co-CEO. This guy joined SpaceX in March 2004 and was on Kwajalein for the Falcon 1 launches. He left SpaceX but joined it again in July 2016 to work with StarLink and left again in Sept 2017 when the first prototypes were ready.
- Another customer signed for a mid-7 figure contract in Jan 2020 for a Phase 1 pathfinder mission – for a much larger constellation than the one signed in Oct 2019 – and which will allow customers to get intimately acquainted with our products and their capabilities. https://mynaric.com/news/mynaric-receives-multi-million-euro-space-contract/
- An undisclosed constellation venture had signed an MOU with Myanaric in Oct 2018 and then invested $11M Euros (6.9% of market cap) in March 2019 with the intention to track progress with in space testing to occur in 2020 before purchasing 1,000 terminals. The number is less than SpaceX plans and it sounded like it was not SpaceX as Bulent declared shortly after joining the team that they had no business relationship with them.
- In April 2020, Myanaric announced that they were on track to deliver their first laser terminal units to a customer in H2 2020 for an extensive qualification campaign. They would be the first in the World to deliver this feature to satelites. I don't see any other company than SpaceX better placed to test this out.
- July 2020, they announced that they were withdrawing from China and 2 weeks later announced the appointment of their President for its US branch (both very likely related to a US client).
- Coincidentaly, "the US team will be based in Hawthorne, Los Angeles, where the new facilities will accommodate Mynaric USA’s growing workforce as well as establish lab facilities to demonstrate, qualify, modify and maintain Mynaric’s laser communication products".
- In their 2019 annual report, they indicated that "In the United States, we will carry on cementing our unique position in the key North American market and work on engineering capabilities and sourcing electronics from within the US" which is a hint at production of these terminals in the US.
- It is very unlikely that OneWeb will resume launches any time soon so the first customer must be actively planning to launch in H2 2020 (maybe later due to some delay related to COVID-19, unless they would equip a few Starlink with it and that will be the "extensive qualification campaign").
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