After fighting back and forth all throughout 1919, a stalemate has developed in Belarus between the Soviets and the Intermarium. On the Soviet side, almost a million men, tired of fighting. On the Intermarium's side, a lower number, but no less impressive for a territory much smaller, where the men are eager to give their lives for Poland, Lithuania and some even for Belarus, but they do not want to march to Moscow, Smolensk or even Vilnius (again). Not if it can be avoided.

Trotsky is in charge of one side of that stalemate, and he has seen the state of his men. In other functions, he has seen the results of War Communism, the policies that are keeping his men alive. He does not believe in either of them. This is no betrayal of his forces, but a sober assessment of their morale. War Communism is stirring the peasants of the country, and the soldiers will break if pressed further into invading Belarus, and then Poland. Frunze has it easy, Trotsky might think: defending Moscow? Many soldiers that would desert if he ordered them to attack Minsk would give their lives fighting for Moscow. But his men are not defending Moscow, and Lenin has to realise that this battle is not going anywhere. Peace is needed, or worse things will happen.

The leader on the Polish side, Pilsudski, is in very different, yet similar position. His men are not capable, were they willing, of fully defeating the Soviets either. More importantly, the political movement of Roman Dmowski is breathing down his neck, the movement of National Democracy. A hodge-podge of bad ideas and worse, the National Democrats would settle for peace without Lithuania, Belarus or Ukraine. And the worst thing about all of this is that they are quite popular. Electorally, they are not the biggest, but General Haller, leader of the Blue Army, is a proud member of the movement, and a war hero. If the Soviets want peace, and Pilsudski refuses, all because he wants Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine free from Soviet rule, it would not be surprising to see an attempted coup d'etat here or there.

Of course, Trotsky is not the leader of the Soviets. That would be Lenin. And National Democracy, Dmowski and Haller are not in charge of the Intermarium. But it should be clear to both Lenin and Pilsudski that there needs to be peace, or worse.