"Why do the major groups publishing energy forecasts consistently undershoot the progress of energy transition? For decades, public sector agencies, oil industry groups, energy industry consultancies, and even environmental nonprofits have been consistently too pessimistic in their outlooks. So why is it that standard energy forecasting models keep getting transition wrong?

A group of researchers at Oxford University may have an answer to that question with a study they recently published on the future trajectory of the energy transition. The problem, they say, is that standard models don't realistically account for learning curves in manufacturing, and exponential growth in deployment as it relates to transition. Their new approach shows that future cost and deployment curves can be predicted quite accurately for energy transition solutions like solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and hydrogen electrolyzers." Paper: https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/energy_transition_paper-INET-working-paper.pdf

Here's a youtube vid of the researchers talking about the work https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-jlDPUw2Bc

Listen to the newest episode of the Energy Transition Show from Chris Nelder, he interviews the author. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-energy-transition-show-with-chris-nelder/id1042713378