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Now that Renata is out and we can finally get real data about Renata, it seems like it's worthwhile looking to see how some of the theory crafting is looking.
Before we start, it's important to emphasize the word early here. We still don't have a massive sample size. We also lack the existence of high mastery players on her who'd benefit more from higher skill combinations.
The data also just can't really account for the fact that as a new champion, it's not just support mains playing her. I've limited the pool to support Renata, but you can still assume there's a hoard of players with bad support fundamentals queueing support to try her.
That said:
As predicted, E>W>Q is the highest winrate Renata build. This seems the standard build.
However, it's worth noting that E>Q>W and W>E>Q are performing with 1% of it. There is some margin of error here, but the durability of this result among tiers of play suggests it's not a fluke.
I think it's worth specifically testing if W>E>Q is better on enchanter focused builds or into Lanes where E is less likely to go off.
In early levels, E>Q>W is getting the best results levels 1-3. W second also seems fine. But, E first seems mandatory.
When it comes to runes however, the theory crafting turned out more shaky. Note the sample sizes for runes are better then for items, because you always take your runes but don't always get an item.
Comet and Electrocute are consistently not performing well (44-46%). Though Comet is doing slightly better then after shock.
Approaching viable is Aery (47-49%). Probably benefits because Aery is more likely to be the enchanter builds, which seem to be doing okay. I suspect Aery will rise with time.
Then comes Glacial (48%-50%) which most agreed would be her core rune. The information thusfar seems to suggest that it is doing well in the exact way people suspected.
But the big news is that across ELOs, both are getting wildly outperformed by Guardian (51-53%). This data is repeating at all ELOs examined. Guardian wasn't remotely as heavily theorized as Aery or Glacial, but when considering Renata's short range and low base durability Guardian's synergy with enchanter and durability items, this makes sense.
The sample size is low and it's possible that the over performance stems from only being picked into certain MUs. But, right now I would suggest heavily experimenting with Guardian.
Meanwhile, in terms of mythics:
Predictions involving AP Renata are in the worst shape. Ludens and Laundries winrates are absymal in almost every data set. Shattercrown is doing (mostly), but it's results are low ELO skewed. Conversely, Everfrost has horrid winrates in low ELO, but in Gold is out performing other raw AP mythics.
Among the enchanter mythics, predictions were accurate. Moonstone is ending up around 46-47% wr, which is slightly sub-viable. Battlesong is around 47-48%, in most ELO brackets, but is matching Mandate in Plat , but like Everfrost it's a high ELO skewed item.
The highest performing standard Enchanter/AP mythic for Renata, as expected is Mandate. It's sitting in 48-50% Winrate, and is similarly performing well as first item.
However, another major annomoly in the data is tank mythics. While the combined playrate of both Locket and Evenshroud are low. They are not so low that their high results aren't a point worth observing. Again, the fact this data point persists across ELOs is worth mentioning.
On a similar note, Relic shield appears to be far out-performing Spellthief's edge as a starting item. There numbers here are somewhat larger.
I won't go so in depth with legendaries.
Enchanter legendaries are largely performing well, albeit not nessacerily the best of anything. As expected Ardent Censor, Flowstaff, and Putrifier are all good options. Ardent is slightly out-performing Flowstaff, but they're probably interchangeable based on comp. Putrifier is beats out Morello as her best GW item.
However, Redemption and the more situanal Mikhail's Blessing are significantly out-performing the others. Perhaps because of synergy with Guardian builds and her general desire for durability.
Data about AP items and tank items are sparser. But some smaller results include the fact that both Seraph AND Fimbulwinter appear strong so far. Lichbane is far out-performing Nasher's Tooth. But AP items with HP like Shadowflame, Demonic, and Rylais have largely positive early results.
Some items I've been hawking are having really strong early data. Cosmic Drive and Zhonyas are both doing consistently well across ELO brackets, with more data points them many other items. Banshee's lacks the same level of data, but appears to also be working as a situational Zhonyas replacement.
TLDR
Reminder: Early results.
Tank Renata possibly secret OP. Enchanter and Catcher alright. AP is eh.
Guardian might be hidden optimal. Aery and Glacial are decent.
E>W>Q, but W>E>Q is worth a try. E>Q>W levels 1-3.
Relic Shield > Spellthief.
Mandate good. Everfrost and Battlesong maybe in high gold . Evenshroud and Locket possibly hidden OP.
Redemption, Zhonyas, Cosmic Drive, Ardent, Flowstaff, Putrifier, pretty good. Everything else needs more data.
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