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The Cards are legit in a massive hole.
Their pitching rotation is an elderly dumpster fire, they have an uninspiring lineup that is begging Burleson or Walker to break out into an all star and they have a below average farm system. They really are on a downswing with nothing to really trade away for talent and no major FAs they can bring in that will take modest money. They're falling behind hard and could be the bottom team in the division pretty easily especially with Pittsburghs pitching and Cincys bats.
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Arenado has already turned down a trade to a legit contending team. Seems he's uninterested in moving and that could spurn the development of Walker further.
You did give a lot of if's there and StL survived on nailing a few big home grown guys, grabbing decent FAs and having a god tier catcher for most of 2 decades.