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Is A Tesla Cash Crunch Coming?
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Let's discuss the biggest issue facing Tesla right now. They are going to be in a cash crunch. Here are a couple of factors I've encountered in business that make cash tight. Feel free to post other ways Tesla can either find cash or s.

  1. The Cash Conversion Cycle hurts you when you shrink. When you are increasing sales and your customer pays you quickly and you pay your suppliers slowly, you get an inrush of cash. This is why Tesla had so much at the end of Q4. They had already sold cars that they hadn't paid the suppliers for yet. It's great. When sales start to shrink though, it all starts to hurt. You start having to pay for last month's parts while less money is coming in the front door. This is bad. Very bad. Tesla sales dropped at 30% quarter to quarter (not even taking ASP into account). If you are paying November and December's bills (let's say they are $4.6B) with February/March's paycheck, which is down 30% to $3.2B, you have a negative cash effect of $1.4B.

  2. Suppliers can smell blood in the water. When you post numbers like this, suddenly your suppliers take notice. They know they are last in line during a bankruptcy, so they are going to demand faster payment. If Tesla has to go from paying on 60 day terms to 30 day terms, They will have to take $2.3B out of cash to pull those payments ahead.

  3. We all know they just paid down $0.9B in debt with cash.

  4. China just loaned them $500M to build a factory, so that helps. But China put caveats on the loan to ensure it will be spent building the factory.

  5. Investors don't like bad growth numbers, so they aren't going to lend you money easily. Tesla's bond yield is already high, so borrowing is going to be tight. These will limit Tesla's ability find cash.

Any other thoughts?

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5 years ago