(My Opinion): The biggest mistake that Tesla made was over-forecasting the demand for the Model3. If they had decided that 150,000 units per year was a reasonable number, they would have realized that they needed a compact SUV on the same platform, made in the same plant, launched right afterward. This would have resulted in the Model Y going into production this year and occupying one of the final assembly lines that Model3 uses. Fremont would stay at capacity for the next couple of years with a varying mix of large and small sedans and SUV's.

Instead, they swung for the fences with the Model3 production and they have flooded the market. Now they are left with enough capacity to sell more Model3's than Toyota sells Camrys (Toyota sold 343k last year). That's too many electric cars for the American market.

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You know who did a good job of succeeding with their EV projections? Almost every other company! The larger companies used market research to tell them that 2,000-5,000 vehicles a month was plenty to satisfy the niche. People love to point out that Tesla is killing GM, Hyundai, Nissan, Jaguar, Audi in the marketplace, but those companies aren't struggling with a glut of cars on the dealers lots. They also haven't had to enact price cuts on already non-profitable vehicles.

What will happen next? My guess is Tesla will try to remedy the situation by deciding to build the Model Y in Fremont.