We work for builders all across the board that build lower priced spec homes ($600-$850k here), medium priced spec builders ($1.5m ) and commercial builders building large scale multi-family.

I’ve noticed that the lower priced spec home builders are squeezing us like crazy over a few hundred dollars here and there. Budgets on new projects have dropped by like 20%. Although, I work with them on price and they always move forward but always complain about all of our bids. It also seems like they are not starting anymore of these smaller homes and have moved towards larger $1.5m and up starts.

Our medium priced spec home builders aren’t really beating us up on bids. Some make comments but they all have moved forward. They are saying homes are staying on the market for twice as long as early last year.

Our large scale commercial builders are moving full steam ahead no questions asked on our bids. Some of these projects they are begging us to do and we are not bidding against anyone. I am talking 250 unit apartment complexes, industrial complexes, etc..

Sounds like people who need mortgages cannot afford the lower priced homes and therefore builders are making concessions/getting squeezed and my bet is there will be heavy losses in this niche of the market.

I think medium priced homes here will slow but stay steady as these folks are coming here from CA and Seattle in droves and paying cash.

Rental market for lower priced apartments is still very much in high demand here so I’m assuming this won’t be slowing down especially since rates are high and these folks cannot afford to buy with current rates.

I feel like this is a very segmented recession (if I dare call it that here). I’m going to be heavily focused on moving our branding towards remodels as I feel like people are locked in their homes at 3% ish and will want to make the best of it for the time being. Especially theoretically since inflation is coming down and hopefully folks have more money to spend.

Thoughts?