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Is the Democrats' traditional playbook of encouraging everyone to vote and maximizing voting a bad electoral strategy with Trump in 2024?
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The conventional wisdom among Democrats is that by encouraging more people to vote, the more marginal and fringe voters will naturally be more sympathetic to them and vote accordingly for Democrats.

However, according to most polls at least for the 2024 presidential election, the less likely voters are more amenable to Trump than Biden. These disaffected voters are not tuned into the hyper-partisan calls by the left of threats to democracy, abortion or Trump's bad manners, but are more concerned with pocketbook issues like inflation and general dissatisfaction and chaos around crime and illegal immigration.

So, by trying to get more of these marginal voters to the polls, unlike in the past where left-leaning campaigns like Rock the Vote persuaded young people to vote for Clinton in 1992/1996 or Obama in 2008/2012, a similar effort would backfire and bring in Trumpier voters instead of voters leaning to the Democrats.

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It's not going to result in a push to Trump, that's for sure.

It'll result in a lower turnout for Democrats and maybe an uptick for third party candidates but if you were a Democrat voter in 2020 and you're thinking of voting for Trump now, that's probably a trajectory that was in place regardless of how well Biden was or wasn't doing.

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8 months ago