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Could Biden's handling of the Israel/Hamas war cause swing states to flip due to the Muslim populations there?
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Orangekale is in Israel
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There has been some talk that Biden's handling of the war is causing a lot of Muslims and Muslim groups to openly say they will not support Biden's reelection with some numbers showing significant dissatisfaction.

For context,

Pennsylvania: Biden won by around 81,000 votes.

Michigan: Biden won by around 154,000 votes.

Wisconsin: Biden won by around 20,000 votes.

Georgia: Biden won by around 10,000 votes.

Arizona: Biden won by around 10,000 votes.

These are roughly the number of Muslims in the following states:

Michigan: 250,000

Pennsylvania: 150,000

Wisconsin: 68,000

Georgia: 123,000

Arizona: 109,000

If we compare:

Michigan:

Muslim Population: 250,000

Margin of Victory (Biden): Approximately 154,000 votes

Pennsylvania:

Muslim Population: 150,000

Margin of Victory (Biden): Approximately 81,000 votes

Wisconsin:

Muslim Population: 68,000

Margin of Victory (Biden): Approximately 20,000 votes

Georgia:

Muslim Population: 123,000

Margin of Victory (Biden): Approximately 12,000 votes

Arizona:

Muslim Population: 109,000

Margin of Victory (Biden): Approximately 10,000 votes

Muslims in the US, especially with the last few elections, have generally voted largely democrat. Of course, it's important to note that voting behavior is influenced by a wide range of factors and it is an assumption to assume voting patterns.

However, looking at the numbers and perhaps some of the sentiment we're seeing, could this pose a problem for Biden's reelection? Or is there not much to worry about?

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Threatening voters works a lot less well than people seem to think it does.

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10 months ago