Usually In every presidential election, there is one particular state that everyone will be watching as THE deciding state to determine the outcome.

For many years, that state was either Florida (mainly) or in smaller ways, Ohio with a close eye on Iowa.

All 3 of those states are now solidly Republican, and aren’t the deciding factor with 2020 changing the game. So what state would that be now? Let’s list the contenders:

-Michigan: flipped red for the first time in decades (at the presidential) in 2016, but very narrowly. Democrats have had probably the most success in this swing state after 2016, winning it by 3 in 2020 and blue waves in 2018 and 2022 in the state.

-Pennsylvania. Flipped red for the first time in decades in 2016. The biggest electoral prize of all the premier battlegrounds. Biden won by just over 1% in 2020, and had a bit of a blue wave in 2022 in the state. Hard to digest which way the winds will blow in 24.

-Wisconsin. Flipped red in 2016 for the first time in decades, but the GOP had great success in the state for most of the 2010’s decade In the state, had a very solid infrastructure built in, is still incredibly competitive, but signs are showing that the overturning of Dobbs is hurting republicans significantly in the state, and a 2023 spring Supreme Court election, which had good turnout, is showing that the issue is motivating voters to the polls on the issue.

-Arizona. A state Biden flipped blue for only the 2nd time in 50 years and has had very noticeable trends to the left in the era of trump. It’s a state with a very solid mix of Democrats, Republicans, and independent voters. It’s ground 0 for the battle of the GOP’s ideological voters, with MAGA and Old school classic conservatives clashing, and being deciding voters in how certain elections will turnout.

-Nevada. A state that Democrats usually can be counted on to win at the presidential, but has been trending right and has given republicans success before at important offices (it’s the only state in 2022 that an incumbent governor lost, and had the closest senate race in the country). Like Arizona, it has a heavy Hispanic population, with a good mix of democrats, republicans, and independents.

-Georgia: definitely the reddest of the battleground states still, but with quite possibly the worst trends for the GOP. Republicans have struggled with suburban and African American voters, and Georgia is a state exploding In population with both of them. Biden narrowly flipped it in 2020, and it has had success for democrats at the federal level In 2021 and 2022.

-North Carolina. Has only gone blue once in recent history, but Biden still got within striking distance of 2020, and despite everything against them, democrats performed respectably in a loss in 2022.

Potential Dark horse states: Texas, Alaska, New Hampshire, Maine