I was curious about the day-over-day increases and the odds of making it to the 5 million mark (I know the candies are more important, and it looks almost certain we'll get them, but I would very much enjoy the final tier of rewards as well). I plotted up the first four days' worth of data, and used Excel's trendline function to generate a trend.

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https://preview.redd.it/oe5kj6l9ph071.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=c420cbc1f1d0623d985873cc512a818a75c52a6d

Interestingly, we're on a logarithmic trend (which makes sense, considering that many players blew their coin stashes for a huge number of clears in the first few days). More interestingly, the R² of the trend line is .9998, which means the data follows the trendline almost perfectly. This was a little weird to me, as I would have expected some variation based on players having different amounts of free time/free days to play the event.

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Following the trend to the final day of the event, if we continue along the logarithmic path currently plotted by the data, we will miss the 5 million mark by around 150k clears. However, this assumes that there's no 'basement' to the number of daily clears--i.e., since every player gets two tickets per day (~4 if they also use all possible daily coins from spending stamina/selling evolution materials), there should be a 'lowest possible number of daily clears' based on the number of players actively playing the event. It also assumes no weekend boost from dedicated players who haven't had time to clear out their coin stashes yet.

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At present, we need an additional 1,693,376 clears to hit the 5 million mark. With 7 days left in the event, this requires a daily average of 241,911 clears from players. As long as the number of players spending two tickets per day (the bare minimum) is above 120,956 players, we'll be able to hit this goal. If there are less active daily players, then everyone will need to spend more than that. At four tickets per day per player, the required number of active players drops to 60,478 to clear the 5 million mark.

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Given how closely the data follows the logarithmic trend, there's also a possibility that DeNa is manipulating the totals to keep players invested. I have no idea how likely this actually is, but I thought I would at least mention it as a possibility.