While no answers are definitive and we should all be open to our theories and assumptions being wrong, I do think we base them on some logical process based on the info we are given. This is why many theories stem from just one little thing and grow, collecting more problems and trying to weave it's way through to a final understanding and answer.

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I strongly believe in the capture theory and every question that has opposed this or just simply needed to be answered for a fuller picture, I believe I can give an answer that ties back in but not a concrete one, just like the theory itself.

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So, while trying to approach everything with an iron clad idea, I stumbled on one small thing and I simply cannot answer it and here it is;

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If Red Tool is a programmed bot in the game to respond to key phrases or words; why was it programmed to say "I am not Tiara"?

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Now, I believe when it turns pink, this is Belle/Tiara in the quitter's room using the texture pack to communicate. When this phrase is said however, it is red.

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If Rainer programmed a simple call and response system and did so with very few responses for Marvin back in 1997 before Tiara/Belle was in the game (2000) why would he install that phrase into the response list?

The phrase was said in response to "Remember being born?" which was also written in the quitter's room with Tiara/Belle.

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Time is very important in this series, I feel, which is why a timeline seems futile, it appears to be more fluid in the game.